- λ home
- 1.48
- λ away
- 1.24
- Σλ total
- 2.72
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.1%
USD Casatese vs Città di Varese prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: USD Casatese 43% · draw 25% · Città di Varese 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
USD Casatese v Città di Varese: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for USD Casatese v Città di Varese are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Casatese (home) | 1.36 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 1.51 |
| Città di Varese (away) | 1.21 | 1.10 | 0.96 | 1.28 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.36 × 1.11 × 1.01 ≈ 1.51
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.79 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.66 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.72 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.48, λaway = 1.24
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 USD Casatese | 41.9% | 42.0% | 45.0% | 43.2% |
| X Draw | 26.3% | 17.0% | 27.7% | 24.7% |
| 2 Città di Varese | 31.7% | 41.0% | 27.3% | 32.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · USD Casatese | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -13.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -19.6% | |
| 2 · Città di Varese | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.30 | 30.3% | +5.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -13.7% | |
| X2 | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -6.4% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB USD Casatese | 57.5% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Città di Varese | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.5% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.5% | 4.09 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -7.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -10.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.69 | 59.2% | +0.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.4% | 2.47 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -20.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.9% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.8% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.596 × 1.69 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.010 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | USD Casatese | Città di Varese |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLWL | DLDWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: USD Casatese 43%, draw 25%, Città di Varese 32%. Standings: USD Casatese 5th on 19, Città di Varese 11th on 14.
Form
USD Casatese, last six: W W L L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Castellanzese. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Città di Varese, last six: D L D W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Sant'Angelo. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG USD Casatese 1.48 · Città di Varese 1.24 · total 2.72. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: USD Casatese 2–1 Città di Varese. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone D table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for USD Casatese vs Città di Varese?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.69 by the bookmakers.
What are the USD Casatese v Città di Varese probabilities?
USD Casatese win 43%, draw 25%, Città di Varese win 32%.
What is the most probable score for USD Casatese vs Città di Varese?
USD Casatese 2–1 Città di Varese is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for USD Casatese vs Città di Varese?
USD Casatese 1.48, Città di Varese 1.24 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is USD Casatese vs Città di Varese?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone D.