- λ home
- 2.18
- λ away
- 0.57
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 2–0 15.3%
Pistoiese vs Coriano prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Pistoiese 74% · draw 17% · Coriano 9%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Pistoiese v Coriano: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Pistoiese v Coriano are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese (home) | 1.36 | 1.57 | 1.08 | 2.28 |
| Coriano (away) | 1.21 | 0.76 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.36 × 1.57 × 1.08 ≈ 2.28
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.83 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.86 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.18, λaway = 0.57
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 74.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 15.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pistoiese | 75.9% | 73.0% | 71.9% | 73.6% |
| X Draw | 16.9% | 15.0% | 18.3% | 17.1% |
| 2 Coriano | 7.2% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pistoiese | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.1% | 5.86 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -16.4% | |
| 2 · Coriano | 9.4% | 10.67 | 9.25 | 10.8% | -13.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.6% | 1.10 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -3.9% | |
| X2 | 26.4% | 3.78 | 2.87 | 34.8% | -24.1% | |
| 12 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pistoiese | 88.7% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Coriano | 11.3% | 8.85 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.1% | 4.16 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -6.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.4% | 1.98 | 2.28 | 43.9% | +14.9% | |
| BTTS no | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -21.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.4% | 10.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.504 × 2.28 − 1 = +0.149 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.117 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pistoiese | Coriano |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWWL | WDLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Pistoiese at 74%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Pistoiese 1st on 28, Coriano 15th on 9.
Form
Pistoiese have three wins from their last six (D W L W W L). Latest: 0–0 away at Pro Patria. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Coriano, last six: W D L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Varesina. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Pistoiese 0–1 Coriano. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pistoiese 2.18 · Coriano 0.57 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 2.28 v fair 1.98. Most probable score: Pistoiese 2–1 Coriano. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Apr 2026Pistoiese0–1Coriano
Serie D Girone D table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pistoiese vs Coriano?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 2.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pistoiese v Coriano probabilities?
Pistoiese win 74%, draw 17%, Coriano win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Pistoiese vs Coriano?
Pistoiese 2–1 Coriano is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pistoiese vs Coriano?
Pistoiese 2.18, Coriano 0.57 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Pistoiese vs Coriano?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone D.