- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.4%
Pro Patria vs Castellanzese prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Pro Patria 55% · draw 26% · Castellanzese 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Pro Patria v Castellanzese: what are you seeing?
- 3′
- 0–0
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- 0
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- 0
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- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Pro Patria v Castellanzese are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria (home) | 1.36 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| Castellanzese (away) | 1.21 | 1.15 | 0.65 | 0.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.36 × 0.92 × 0.85 ≈ 1.06
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.96 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.32 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.59 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 47.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pro Patria | 37.8% | 75.0% | 57.9% | 54.9% |
| X Draw | 32.7% | 17.0% | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| 2 Castellanzese | 29.5% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pro Patria | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -15.5% | |
| X · Draw | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -8.9% | |
| 2 · Castellanzese | 19.1% | 5.23 | 5.35 | 18.7% | +2.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -13.5% | |
| X2 | 45.1% | 2.21 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -4.3% | |
| 12 | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -11.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pro Patria | 74.2% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Castellanzese | 25.8% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -13.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.7% | 3.16 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -0.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -16.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -0.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.5% | 4.25 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -24.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -3.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -2.7% | |
| BTTS no | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -14.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.5% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.567 × 1.76 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pro Patria | Castellanzese |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDDWW | LLDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Pro Patria ahead at 55%, against 19% for Castellanzese and 26% for the draw. Standings: Pro Patria 3rd on 21, Castellanzese 4th on 19.
Form
Pro Patria have two wins from their last six (D L D D W W). Latest: 0–0 at home to Pistoiese. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Castellanzese, last six: L L D W W W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to USD Casatese. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pro Patria 1.35 · Castellanzese 0.89 · total 2.24. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.76 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Pro Patria 1–0 Castellanzese. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone D table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.76 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pro Patria v Castellanzese probabilities?
Pro Patria win 55%, draw 26%, Castellanzese win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
Pro Patria 1–0 Castellanzese is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
Pro Patria 1.35, Castellanzese 0.89 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Pro Patria vs Castellanzese?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Carlo Speroni – Serie D Girone D.