- λ home
- 1.77
- λ away
- 0.63
- Σλ total
- 2.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.2%
Triestina vs Schio prediction & xG model: Triestina to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Triestina v Schio: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTriestina to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Triestina v Schio are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triestina (home) | 1.23 | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Schio (away) | 1.14 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.23 × 0.83 × 1.03 ≈ 1.05
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.03 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.10 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.77, λaway = 0.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Triestina | 35.5% | 71.0% | 56.0% | 64.7% |
| X Draw | 32.2% | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.9% |
| 2 Schio | 32.4% | 8.0% | 18.4% | 12.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Triestina pick | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.59 | 62.9% | +2.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.9% | 4.36 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -20.2% | |
| 2 · Schio | 12.4% | 8.09 | 4.85 | 20.6% | -40.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.6% | 1.14 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -4.5% | |
| X2 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -28.0% | |
| 12 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Triestina | 84.0% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Schio | 16.0% | 6.24 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -11.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -3.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -14.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -19.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -5.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -10.2% | |
| BTTS no | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -7.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.2% | 8.18 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.647 × 1.59 − 1 = +0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.049 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Triestina | Schio |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLWL | LLLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Triestina at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Triestina 12th on 13, Schio 17th on 8.
Form
Triestina, last six: W L W L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Este. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Schio: L L L W L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Cjarlins Muzane. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Triestina 1.77 · Schio 0.63 · total 2.39. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Triestina to win, probability 65%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Triestina 1–0 Schio. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 12 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 12 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Triestina vs Schio?
The Model pick is Triestina to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.59 by the bookmakers.
What are the Triestina v Schio probabilities?
Triestina win 65%, draw 23%, Schio win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Triestina vs Schio?
Triestina 1–0 Schio is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Triestina vs Schio?
Triestina 1.77, Schio 0.63 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Triestina vs Schio?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Stadio Nereo Rocco – Serie D Girone C.