- λ home
- 0.97
- λ away
- 1.31
- Σλ total
- 2.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 42%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 0–1 13.4%
FC Obermais vs Sandona prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Obermais v Sandona: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Obermais v Sandona are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Obermais (home) | 1.23 | 1.02 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| Sandona (away) | 1.14 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.23 × 1.02 × 0.61 ≈ 0.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.79 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.05 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.48 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.97, λaway = 1.31
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 27.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.3%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Obermais | 25.8% | 30.0% | 30.9% | 30.4% |
| X Draw | 34.4% | 18.0% | 29.1% | 22.7% |
| 2 Sandona | 39.8% | 52.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Obermais | 30.4% | 3.29 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -12.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.06 | 32.7% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Sandona | 46.9% | 2.13 | 2.23 | 44.8% | +4.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -20.9% | |
| X2 | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -9.5% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Obermais | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sandona | 60.7% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -11.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -5.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -13.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -3.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -19.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -6.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 42.9% | 2.33 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -20.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.9% | 4.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.8% | 3.14 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.571 × 1.79 − 1 = +0.022 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.028 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Obermais | Sandona |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLWLD | DWDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 100% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 47% against 30%. Standings: FC Obermais 11th on 13, Sandona 3rd on 19.
Form
FC Obermais have one win from their last six (D D L W L D). Latest: 0–0 away at Virtus Bolzano. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sandona, last six: D W D W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Altavilla. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.0 conceded. 6 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Obermais 0.97 · Sandona 1.31 · total 2.28. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: FC Obermais 1–2 Sandona. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 12 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 12 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Obermais vs Sandona?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.79 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Obermais v Sandona probabilities?
FC Obermais win 30%, draw 23%, Sandona win 47%.
What is the most probable score for FC Obermais vs Sandona?
FC Obermais 1–2 Sandona is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Obermais vs Sandona?
FC Obermais 0.97, Sandona 1.31 – over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is FC Obermais vs Sandona?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone C.