- λ home
- 1.13
- λ away
- 1.06
- Σλ total
- 2.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.4%
Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Bassano Virtus v Calvi Noale: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Bassano Virtus v Calvi Noale are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bassano Virtus (home) | 1.23 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Calvi Noale (away) | 1.14 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.23 × 0.84 × 1.00 ≈ 1.03
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.84 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.90 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.13, λaway = 1.06
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bassano Virtus | 38.8% | 39.0% | 41.9% | 40.2% |
| X Draw | 33.9% | 18.0% | 29.5% | 22.8% |
| 2 Calvi Noale | 27.3% | 43.0% | 28.6% | 36.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bassano Virtus | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -13.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.38 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Calvi Noale | 36.9% | 2.71 | 3.15 | 31.7% | +16.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.1% | 1.59 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -18.0% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -6.1% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.31 | 76.3% | +1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bassano Virtus | 52.1% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Calvi Noale | 47.9% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -15.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.9% | 5.59 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.84 | 54.3% | +1.0% | |
| BTTS no | 45.1% | 2.22 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -18.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.2% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.5% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.3% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.549 × 1.84 − 1 = +0.010 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.012 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bassano Virtus | Calvi Noale |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWWW | DLLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Bassano Virtus 40%, draw 23%, Calvi Noale 37%. Standings: Bassano Virtus 10th on 14, Calvi Noale 16th on 10.
Form
Bassano Virtus have three wins from their last six (D L L W W W). Latest: 0–0 away at Clodiense. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Calvi Noale, last six: D L L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Luparense. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Bassano Virtus 0–1 Calvi Noale. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bassano Virtus 1.13 · Calvi Noale 1.06 · total 2.19. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.84 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Bassano Virtus 2–1 Calvi Noale. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 May 2026Bassano Virtus0–1Calvi Noale
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 12 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 12 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.84 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bassano Virtus v Calvi Noale probabilities?
Bassano Virtus win 40%, draw 23%, Calvi Noale win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale?
Bassano Virtus 2–1 Calvi Noale is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale?
Bassano Virtus 1.13, Calvi Noale 1.06 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio Rino Mercante – Serie D Girone C.