Italy Serie D Girone B Sun 25 Oct 2026 Full time

Tritium

DLDLL

2–0

Half-time 0–0

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

LDWLL

32%P(1)23%P(X)45%P(2)

λ home: 1.19
λ away: 1.46
Σλ total: 2.65
P(over 2.5): 48%
P(BTTS): 49%
Modal score: 1–1 12.3%

Tritium vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Tritium v Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Tritium v Virtus Ciserano Bergamo are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Tritium (home)	1.51	0.78	1.04	1.23
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (away)	1.16	0.80	1.20	1.12

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.51 × 0.78 × 1.04 ≈ 1.23

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.35	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.81	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.52	30%
Blended total λ	2.65	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.19, λ_away = 1.46

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Tritium λ = 1.19

030.4%

136.2%

221.5%

38.5%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo λ = 1.46

023.2%

133.9%

224.8%

312.0%

44.4%

5+1.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Tri \ Vir012345+

07.1107.53.71.30.5

18.4129.04.41.60.6

25.07.35.32.60.9·

32.02.92.11.0··

40.60.90.6···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 30.8%
Σ draw cells: 25.8%
Σ away-win cells: 43.3%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.3%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Tritium	38.0%	32.0%	33.1%	32.5%
X Draw	29.4%	18.0%	28.8%	22.6%
2 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	32.6%	50.0%	38.0%	45.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Tritium	32.5%	3.08	2.70	37.0%	-12.3%
X · Draw	22.6%	4.43	3.10	32.3%	-30.1%
2 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	45.0%	2.22	2.35	42.6%	+5.7%
Double chance
1X	55.0%	1.82	1.50	66.7%	-17.5%
X2	67.5%	1.48	1.36	73.5%	-8.2%
12	77.4%	1.29	1.28	78.1%	-0.9%
Draw no bet
DNB Tritium	41.9%	2.39	–	–	–
DNB Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	58.1%	1.72	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	74.2%	1.35	–	–	–
Under 1.5	25.8%	3.88	–	–	–
Over 2.5	47.7%	2.10	2.05	48.8%	-2.2%
Under 2.5 pick	52.3%	1.91	1.75	57.1%	-8.5%
Over 3.5	27.5%	3.64	–	–	–
Under 3.5	72.5%	1.38	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	49.2%	2.03	–	–	–
BTTS no	50.8%	1.97	–	–	–
Half-time
HT 1	24.9%	4.01	–	–	–
HT X	42.6%	2.35	–	–	–
HT 2	32.5%	3.07	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 2.5 goals

Probability52.3%

Fair odds1.91

Best odds1.75

EV per unit-8.5%

EV = 0.523 × 1.75 − 1 = -0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Tritium	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Sequence	LLDLDL	LLWDLD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	0-2-4	1-2-3
Points per match	0.33	0.83
Goals for / match	0.83	1.33
Goals against / match	2.33	1.67
Over 2.5	50%	67%
BTTS	50%	83%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	50%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo narrowly ahead at 45%; Tritium 32%. Standings: Tritium 18th on 6, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 15th on 10.

Form

Sequence for Tritium: L L D L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Virtus Verona. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: L L W D L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Leon. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Tritium 1.19 · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1.46 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 49%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 52%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Tritium 0–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

No previous meeting in our data.

Serie D Girone B table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chievo	11	8	1	2	+16	25
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	11	8	1	2	+9	25
3	Milan II	11	7	2	2	+6	23
4	Piacenza	11	6	3	2	+10	21
5	Leon	11	6	3	2	+6	21
6	Caldiero Terme	11	5	3	3	+3	18
7	Villa Valle	11	4	5	2	+5	17
8	Pavonese	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Scanzorosciate	11	3	5	3	0	14
10	Pro Palazzolo	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Real Calepina	11	3	4	4	-4	13
12	Virtus Verona	11	3	3	5	-5	12
13	Club Milano	11	3	2	6	-4	11
14	Rovato Vertovese	11	2	4	5	-3	10
15	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	11	2	4	5	-5	10
16	Brusaporto	11	3	0	8	-10	9
17	Fiorenzuola	11	1	3	7	-8	6
18	Tritium	11	1	3	7	-10	6