- λ home
- 1.03
- λ away
- 1.40
- Σλ total
- 2.44
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Pro Palazzolo vs Piacenza prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Pro Palazzolo v Piacenza: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Pro Palazzolo v Piacenza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Palazzolo (home) | 1.51 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 1.03 |
| Piacenza (away) | 1.16 | 1.28 | 1.05 | 1.56 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.86 × 0.80 ≈ 1.03
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.60 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.44 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.03, λaway = 1.40
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 27.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pro Palazzolo | 24.6% | 32.0% | 27.2% | 30.0% |
| X Draw | 26.6% | 18.0% | 28.0% | 22.2% |
| 2 Piacenza | 48.7% | 50.0% | 44.8% | 47.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.116 → 11.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pro Palazzolo | 30.0% | 3.34 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -1.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.50 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.9% | |
| 2 · Piacenza | 47.8% | 2.09 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -4.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.2% | 1.92 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -12.9% | |
| X2 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -12.5% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pro Palazzolo | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Piacenza | 61.5% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.1% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.25 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -6.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -5.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.9% | 4.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 54.2% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.3% | 4.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.1% | 3.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.557 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pro Palazzolo | Piacenza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDLW | WDWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Piacenza narrowly ahead at 48%; Pro Palazzolo 30%. Standings: Pro Palazzolo 10th on 14, Piacenza 4th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Pro Palazzolo: L L W D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Villa Valle. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Piacenza: W D W W W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Caldiero Terme. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pro Palazzolo 1.03 · Piacenza 1.40 · total 2.44. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Pro Palazzolo 0–1 Piacenza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pro Palazzolo vs Piacenza?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pro Palazzolo v Piacenza probabilities?
Pro Palazzolo win 30%, draw 22%, Piacenza win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Pro Palazzolo vs Piacenza?
Pro Palazzolo 0–1 Piacenza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pro Palazzolo vs Piacenza?
Pro Palazzolo 1.03, Piacenza 1.40 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Pro Palazzolo vs Piacenza?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone B.