- λ home
- 1.09
- λ away
- 1.24
- Σλ total
- 2.32
- P(over 2.5)
- 42%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
Fiorenzuola vs Rovato Vertovese prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Fiorenzuola v Rovato Vertovese: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Fiorenzuola v Rovato Vertovese are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorenzuola (home) | 1.51 | 0.63 | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| Rovato Vertovese (away) | 1.16 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 1.14 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.63 × 1.25 ≈ 1.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.33 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.32 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.09, λaway = 1.24
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fiorenzuola | 36.4% | 33.0% | 36.6% | 34.5% |
| X Draw | 29.6% | 19.0% | 30.3% | 23.8% |
| 2 Rovato Vertovese | 34.1% | 48.0% | 33.1% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.099 → 9.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Fiorenzuola | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.21 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -28.7% | |
| 2 · Rovato Vertovese | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +14.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 65.5% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Fiorenzuola | 45.2% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rovato Vertovese | 54.8% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -10.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -10.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -16.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -0.2% | |
| BTTS no | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -10.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.9% | 4.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.0% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.2% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.512 × 1.95 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Fiorenzuola | Rovato Vertovese |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDDLL | DWLDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Rovato Vertovese narrowly ahead at 42%; Fiorenzuola 34%. Standings: Fiorenzuola 17th on 6, Rovato Vertovese 14th on 10.
Form
Sequence for Fiorenzuola: L D D D L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Pavonese. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Rovato Vertovese: D W L D D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Scanzorosciate. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Fiorenzuola 1.09 · Rovato Vertovese 1.24 · total 2.32. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.95. Most probable score: Fiorenzuola 1–2 Rovato Vertovese. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Fiorenzuola vs Rovato Vertovese?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Fiorenzuola v Rovato Vertovese probabilities?
Fiorenzuola win 34%, draw 24%, Rovato Vertovese win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Fiorenzuola vs Rovato Vertovese?
Fiorenzuola 1–2 Rovato Vertovese is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Fiorenzuola vs Rovato Vertovese?
Fiorenzuola 1.09, Rovato Vertovese 1.24 – over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Fiorenzuola vs Rovato Vertovese?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio comunale – Serie D Girone B.