- λ home
- 1.86
- λ away
- 0.71
- Σλ total
- 2.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.2%
Oyonesa vs Pradejón prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Oyonesa 65% · draw 19% · Pradejón 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Oyonesa v Pradejón: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Oyonesa v Pradejón are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oyonesa (home) | 1.68 | 1.06 | 1.02 | 1.82 |
| Pradejón (away) | 1.26 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.06 × 1.02 ≈ 1.82
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.48 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.86, λaway = 0.71
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oyonesa | 64.1% | 63.0% | 67.0% | 65.0% |
| X Draw | 23.2% | 11.0% | 21.0% | 19.4% |
| 2 Pradejón | 12.8% | 26.0% | 12.0% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Oyonesa | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -13.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.15 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -17.4% | |
| 2 · Pradejón | 15.5% | 6.44 | 7.40 | 13.5% | +14.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -14.7% | |
| X2 | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.71 | 36.9% | -5.3% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -8.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Oyonesa | 80.7% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pradejón | 19.3% | 5.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -11.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.5% | 3.91 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -2.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -14.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | 2.04 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -1.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -20.1% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -6.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.3% | 7.51 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.703 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.044 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Oyonesa | Pradejón |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | LLLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Oyonesa at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Oyonesa 9th on 17, Pradejón 11th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Oyonesa: W W L W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at San Marcial. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Pradejón, last six: L L L W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to La Calzada. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Oyonesa 1.86 · Pradejón 0.71 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.42. Most probable score: Oyonesa 1–0 Pradejón. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 16 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Calzada | 11 | +6 | 27 |
| 2 |  Haro Deportivo | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 3 |  Alfaro | 10 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Calahorra | 10 | +18 | 21 |
| 5 |  Varea | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Berceo | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 |  Anguiano | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Agoncillo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 9 |  Oyonesa | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 |  San Marcial | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 11 |  Pradejón | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Yagüe | 11 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Calasancio | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 |  River Ebro | 10 | -12 | 7 |
| 15 |  Comillas | 10 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  Cenicero | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Vianés | 10 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Casalarreina | 10 | -18 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 16 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Oyonesa vs Pradejón?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Oyonesa v Pradejón probabilities?
Oyonesa win 65%, draw 19%, Pradejón win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Oyonesa vs Pradejón?
Oyonesa 1–0 Pradejón is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Oyonesa vs Pradejón?
Oyonesa 1.86, Pradejón 0.71 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Oyonesa vs Pradejón?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 16.