- λ home
- 1.78
- λ away
- 1.08
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Calasancio vs Cenicero prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Calasancio 54% · draw 24% · Cenicero 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Calasancio v Cenicero: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Calasancio v Cenicero are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calasancio (home) | 1.68 | 0.88 | 1.23 | 1.81 |
| Cenicero (away) | 1.26 | 0.80 | 1.14 | 1.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 0.88 × 1.23 ≈ 1.81
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.96 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.95 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.78, λaway = 1.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Calasancio | 52.2% | 70.0% | 47.6% | 54.4% |
| X Draw | 24.2% | 19.0% | 27.5% | 24.4% |
| 2 Cenicero | 23.7% | 11.0% | 24.9% | 21.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Calasancio | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.87 | 53.5% | +1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.11 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -21.1% | |
| 2 · Cenicero | 21.2% | 4.71 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -24.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -6.3% | |
| X2 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -22.0% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -6.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Calasancio | 71.9% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cenicero | 28.1% | 3.56 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -5.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -19.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -3.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.06 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -13.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -4.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -11.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.74 | 57.5% | +0.4% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.37 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -19.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.4% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.74 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.006 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Calasancio | Cenicero |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLW | DLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Calasancio 54%, draw 24%, Cenicero 21%. Standings: Calasancio 13th on 11, Cenicero 16th on 6.
Form
Sequence for Calasancio: W L W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at River Ebro. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Cenicero, last six: D L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Agoncillo. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Calasancio 1.78 · Cenicero 1.08 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.74 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Calasancio 2–1 Cenicero. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 16 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Haro Deportivo | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  La Calzada | 10 | +5 | 24 |
| 3 |  Alfaro | 10 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Calahorra | 10 | +18 | 21 |
| 5 |  Varea | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Berceo | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 |  Anguiano | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Oyonesa | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Agoncillo | 10 | +6 | 16 |
| 10 |  San Marcial | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pradejón | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Yagüe | 10 | -9 | 12 |
| 13 |  Calasancio | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 |  River Ebro | 10 | -12 | 7 |
| 15 |  Comillas | 10 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  Cenicero | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Vianés | 10 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Casalarreina | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Calasancio vs Cenicero?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.74 by the bookmakers.
What are the Calasancio v Cenicero probabilities?
Calasancio win 54%, draw 24%, Cenicero win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Calasancio vs Cenicero?
Calasancio 2–1 Cenicero is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Calasancio vs Cenicero?
Calasancio 1.78, Cenicero 1.08 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Calasancio vs Cenicero?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 16.