- λ home
- 2.22
- λ away
- 1.37
- Σλ total
- 3.59
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.3%
Haro Deportivo vs Berceo prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Haro Deportivo 58% · draw 18% · Berceo 23%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Haro Deportivo v Berceo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Haro Deportivo v Berceo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haro Deportivo (home) | 1.68 | 1.41 | 0.98 | 2.32 |
| Berceo (away) | 1.26 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 1.46 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.41 × 0.98 ≈ 2.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.78 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.80 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.12 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.59 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.22, λaway = 1.37
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Haro Deportivo | 56.5% | 52.0% | 63.2% | 58.3% |
| X Draw | 20.3% | 11.0% | 21.0% | 18.4% |
| 2 Berceo | 23.2% | 37.0% | 15.8% | 23.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Haro Deportivo | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -17.8% | |
| X · Draw | 18.4% | 5.43 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -21.7% | |
| 2 · Berceo | 23.3% | 4.29 | 5.65 | 17.7% | +31.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -18.7% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.43 | 41.2% | +1.4% | |
| 12 | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -7.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Haro Deportivo | 71.4% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Berceo | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -5.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4.55 | 22.0% | -25.8% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -2.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -20.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.29 | 43.7% | +1.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -14.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -8.8% | |
| BTTS no | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -9.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.4% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.7% | 2.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.9% | 4.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.649 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Haro Deportivo | Berceo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLW | LWLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Haro Deportivo 58%, draw 18%, Berceo 23%. Standings: Haro Deportivo 2nd on 25, Berceo 6th on 18.
Form
Haro Deportivo, last six: W W W W L W – five wins in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Comillas. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Berceo have three wins from their last six (L W L L W W). Latest: 1–3 at home to Alfaro. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Haro Deportivo 2.22 · Berceo 1.37 · total 3.59. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Haro Deportivo 2–1 Berceo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 16 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Calzada | 11 | +6 | 27 |
| 2 |  Haro Deportivo | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 3 |  Alfaro | 10 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Calahorra | 10 | +18 | 21 |
| 5 |  Varea | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Berceo | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 |  Anguiano | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Agoncillo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 9 |  Oyonesa | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 |  San Marcial | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 11 |  Pradejón | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Yagüe | 11 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Calasancio | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 |  River Ebro | 10 | -12 | 7 |
| 15 |  Comillas | 10 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  Cenicero | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Vianés | 10 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Casalarreina | 10 | -18 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 16 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Haro Deportivo vs Berceo?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Haro Deportivo v Berceo probabilities?
Haro Deportivo win 58%, draw 18%, Berceo win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Haro Deportivo vs Berceo?
Haro Deportivo 2–1 Berceo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Haro Deportivo vs Berceo?
Haro Deportivo 2.22, Berceo 1.37 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Haro Deportivo vs Berceo?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 16.