- λ home
- 1.07
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 2.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.4%
Buñol vs Hércules II prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Buñol 37% · draw 24% · Hércules II 39%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Buñol v Hércules II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Buñol v Hércules II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.30 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.16 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.07, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Buñol | – | 34.0% | 41.9% | 37.3% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
| 2 Hércules II | – | 47.0% | 27.7% | 38.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Buñol | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -19.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.20 | 2.96 | 33.8% | -29.6% | |
| 2 · Hércules II | 38.9% | 2.57 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +26.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -24.8% | |
| X2 | 62.7% | 1.60 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.1% | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Buñol | 49.0% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hércules II | 51.0% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -8.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -12.4% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -5.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.6% | 5.10 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -18.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.93 | 51.8% | +6.0% | |
| BTTS no | 45.1% | 2.22 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -22.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.5% | 3.77 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.614 × 1.54 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Buñol | Hércules II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLLL | WDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Buñol 37%, draw 24%, Hércules II 39%. Standings: Buñol 10th on 12, Hércules II 4th on 16.
Form
Buñol, last six: D W W L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–3 away at Utiel. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Hércules II have four wins from their last six (W D D W W W). Latest: 1–0 at home to Soneja. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Buñol 1.07 · Hércules II 1.10 · total 2.16. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 61%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 61%, odds 1.54 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Buñol 0–1 Hércules II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 6 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Villarreal III | 10 | +8 | 24 |
| 2 |  Levante II | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Torrent | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Hércules II | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Acero | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Crevillente | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  Eldense B | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Vall de Uxó | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Roda | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 |  Buñol | 9 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 |  Ontinyent 1931 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Saguntino | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  Jove Español | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Atzeneta | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |  Utiel | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Torrellano | 9 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 |  SC Torrevieja | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 |  Soneja | 9 | -8 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 6 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Buñol vs Hércules II?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.54 by the bookmakers.
What are the Buñol v Hércules II probabilities?
Buñol win 37%, draw 24%, Hércules II win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Buñol vs Hércules II?
Buñol 0–1 Hércules II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Buñol vs Hércules II?
Buñol 1.07, Hércules II 1.10 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Buñol vs Hércules II?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 6.