- λ home
- 1.22
- λ away
- 1.21
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
Soneja vs Atzeneta prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Soneja 38% · draw 24% · Atzeneta 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Soneja v Atzeneta: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Soneja v Atzeneta are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.43 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.22, λaway = 1.21
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Soneja | – | 43.0% | 31.9% | 38.3% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 30.8% | 24.0% |
| 2 Atzeneta | – | 38.0% | 37.2% | 37.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Soneja | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +7.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -30.5% | |
| 2 · Atzeneta | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -9.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.5% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -16.2% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Soneja | 50.4% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atzeneta | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.8% | 4.39 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.2% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 48.9% | 2.04 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -10.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.8% | 3.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.511 × 1.85 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Soneja | Atzeneta |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLL | DLWDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Soneja 38%, draw 24%, Atzeneta 38%. Standings: Soneja 18th on 7, Atzeneta 14th on 9.
Form
Soneja, last six: L L W L L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Hércules II. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Atzeneta have one win from their last six (D L W D D L). Latest: 0–0 at home to Levante II. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Atzeneta 0–1 Soneja. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Soneja 1.22 · Atzeneta 1.21 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.96. Most probable score: Soneja 2–1 Atzeneta. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 Apr 2026Atzeneta0–1Soneja
Tercera División RFEF Group 6 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Villarreal III | 10 | +8 | 24 |
| 2 |  Levante II | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Torrent | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Hércules II | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Acero | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Crevillente | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  Eldense B | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Vall de Uxó | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 |  Roda | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 |  Buñol | 9 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 |  Ontinyent 1931 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Saguntino | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  Jove Español | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Atzeneta | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |  Utiel | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Torrellano | 9 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 |  SC Torrevieja | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 |  Soneja | 9 | -8 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 6 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Soneja vs Atzeneta?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Soneja v Atzeneta probabilities?
Soneja win 38%, draw 24%, Atzeneta win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Soneja vs Atzeneta?
Soneja 2–1 Atzeneta is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Soneja vs Atzeneta?
Soneja 1.22, Atzeneta 1.21 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Soneja vs Atzeneta?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 19:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 6.