- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Somozas vs Estradense prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Somozas 39% · draw 26% · Estradense 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Somozas v Estradense: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Somozas v Estradense are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somozas (home) | 1.35 | 0.92 | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| Estradense (away) | 1.14 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 1.33 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.35 × 0.92 × 1.13 ≈ 1.40
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.72 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.65 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.46 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Somozas | 38.2% | 43.0% | 37.5% | 39.0% |
| X Draw | 26.9% | 18.0% | 29.5% | 25.9% |
| 2 Estradense | 34.9% | 39.0% | 33.0% | 35.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Somozas | 39.0% | 2.56 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.02 | 33.1% | -21.7% | |
| 2 · Estradense | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -5.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -13.6% | |
| X2 | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -12.8% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Somozas | 52.7% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Estradense | 47.3% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | 1.41 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -6.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -16.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 2.14 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -4.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -11.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.8% | 3.88 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -5.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -10.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.6% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 42.4% | 2.36 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -22.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.6% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.4% | 3.64 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.576 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.037 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.047 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Somozas | Estradense |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDLDD | DDWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Somozas 39%, draw 26%, Estradense 35%. Standings: Somozas 14th on 11, Estradense 8th on 15.
Form
Somozas, last six: W D D L D D – one win in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Villalbés. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Estradense, last six: D D W L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Celta de Vigo III. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Somozas 1.35 · Estradense 1.27 · total 2.62. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Somozas 2–1 Estradense. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boiro | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Sarriana | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lalin | 11 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 |  Silva | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 5 |  Barco | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 |  Atlético Arteixo | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Portonovo SD | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estradense | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  Villalbés | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Celtiga | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Pontevedra II | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Antela | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Alondras | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Somozas | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 |  Arenteiro | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Coruña | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo III | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Viveiro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Somozas vs Estradense?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Somozas v Estradense probabilities?
Somozas win 39%, draw 26%, Estradense win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Somozas vs Estradense?
Somozas 2–1 Estradense is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Somozas vs Estradense?
Somozas 1.35, Estradense 1.27 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Somozas vs Estradense?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 1.