- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 1.29
- Σλ total
- 2.86
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.6%
Pontevedra II vs Atlético Arteixo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Pontevedra II 48% · draw 26% · Atlético Arteixo 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Pontevedra II v Atlético Arteixo: what are you seeing?
- 52′
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Pontevedra II v Atlético Arteixo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra II (home) | 1.35 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.57 |
| Atlético Arteixo (away) | 1.14 | 1.34 | 0.97 | 1.48 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.35 × 1.07 × 1.09 ≈ 1.57
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.05 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.85 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.58 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.86 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 1.29
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pontevedra II | 39.5% | 64.0% | 45.7% | 47.8% |
| X Draw | 25.1% | 25.0% | 27.2% | 25.9% |
| 2 Atlético Arteixo | 35.5% | 11.0% | 27.2% | 26.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pontevedra II | 47.8% | 2.09 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -6.9% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -14.9% | |
| 2 · Atlético Arteixo | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -13.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -9.3% | |
| X2 | 52.2% | 1.91 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -13.8% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -8.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pontevedra II | 64.5% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atlético Arteixo | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -5.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.5% | 3.93 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -20.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -1.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -14.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -1.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -12.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.7% | 1.68 | 1.76 | 56.8% | +5.0% | |
| BTTS no | 40.3% | 2.48 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -24.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.7% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.597 × 1.76 − 1 = +0.050 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.066 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pontevedra II | Atlético Arteixo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLL | WDWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Pontevedra II 48%, draw 26%, Atlético Arteixo 26%. Standings: Pontevedra II 11th on 13, Atlético Arteixo 6th on 16.
Form
Pontevedra II have two wins from their last six (L W W L L L). Latest: 1–3 away at Sarriana. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Atlético Arteixo, last six: W D W W D L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Lalin. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pontevedra II 1.57 · Atlético Arteixo 1.29 · total 2.86. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.76 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Pontevedra II 2–1 Atlético Arteixo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boiro | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Sarriana | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lalin | 11 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 |  Silva | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 5 |  Barco | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 |  Atlético Arteixo | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Portonovo SD | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estradense | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  Villalbés | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Celtiga | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Pontevedra II | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Antela | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Alondras | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Somozas | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 |  Arenteiro | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Coruña | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo III | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Viveiro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pontevedra II vs Atlético Arteixo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.76 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pontevedra II v Atlético Arteixo probabilities?
Pontevedra II win 48%, draw 26%, Atlético Arteixo win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Pontevedra II vs Atlético Arteixo?
Pontevedra II 2–1 Atlético Arteixo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pontevedra II vs Atlético Arteixo?
Pontevedra II 1.57, Atlético Arteixo 1.29 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Pontevedra II vs Atlético Arteixo?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 1.