- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 1.22
- Σλ total
- 2.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Silva vs Alondras prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Silva 40% · draw 23% · Alondras 37%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Silva v Alondras: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Silva v Alondras are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.44 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 1.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Silva | – | 42.0% | 37.9% | 40.3% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.9% | 22.6% |
| 2 Alondras | – | 40.0% | 33.1% | 37.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Silva | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -5.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.43 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -30.4% | |
| 2 · Alondras | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -0.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -15.7% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -14.0% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Silva | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Alondras | 48.0% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.81 | 35.6% | -14.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -6.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -9.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.5% | 4.08 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -9.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -3.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -14.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.0% | 3.70 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.755 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.094 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Silva | Alondras |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWD | LDDLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 23 / 37% for home, draw, away. Standings: Silva 3rd on 17, Alondras 12th on 12.
Form
Silva, last six: W W L W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Antela. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Alondras: L D D L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Viveiro. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Alondras 1–1 Silva. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Silva 1.29 · Alondras 1.22 · total 2.51. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Silva 1–0 Alondras. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Apr 2026Alondras1–1Silva
Tercera División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boiro | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Sarriana | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Silva | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 4 |  Barco | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Atlético Arteixo | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Portonovo SD | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Estradense | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 |  Lalin | 10 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Villalbés | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pontevedra II | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Antela | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alondras | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Somozas | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 |  Celtiga | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Arenteiro | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Coruña | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo III | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Viveiro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Silva vs Alondras?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Silva v Alondras probabilities?
Silva win 40%, draw 23%, Alondras win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Silva vs Alondras?
Silva 1–0 Alondras is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Silva vs Alondras?
Silva 1.29, Alondras 1.22 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Silva vs Alondras?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 1.