England WSL Cup Wed 11 Nov 2026 · The Valley Full time

Ipswich Town W

WDWWL

55%P(1)22%P(X)24%P(2)

λ home: 1.92
λ away: 1.19
Σλ total: 3.11
P(over 2.5): 58%
P(BTTS): 63%
Modal score: 1–1 10.2%

Charlton Athletic W vs Ipswich Town W prediction & xG model: Charlton Athletic W to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Charlton Athletic W v Ipswich Town W: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipCharlton Athletic W to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Charlton Athletic W v Ipswich Town W are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (22 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Charlton Athletic W (home)	1.66	0.68	0.82	0.93
Ipswich Town W (away)	1.38	0.88	1.26	1.53

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.68 × 0.82 ≈ 0.93

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.46	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.29	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.96	30%
Blended total λ	3.11	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.92, λ_away = 1.19

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Charlton Athletic W λ = 1.92

014.7%

128.1%

227.0%

317.3%

48.3%

5+4.6%

Ipswich Town W λ = 1.19

030.5%

136.2%

221.5%

38.5%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Cha \ Ips012345+

04.55.33.21.2··

18.6106.12.40.7·

28.29.85.82.30.7·

35.36.33.71.5··

42.53.01.80.7··

5+1.41.71.0···

Σ home-win cells: 54.4%
Σ draw cells: 22.2%
Σ away-win cells: 23.4%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 10.2%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Charlton Athletic W	22.4%	61.0%	45.9%	54.7%
X Draw	27.1%	19.0%	25.6%	21.8%
2 Ipswich Town W	50.5%	20.0%	28.5%	23.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Charlton Athletic W pick	54.7%	1.83	1.94	51.5%	+6.0%
X · Draw	21.8%	4.59	3.48	28.7%	-24.3%
2 · Ipswich Town W	23.6%	4.24	3.12	32.1%	-26.4%
Double chance
1X	76.4%	1.31	1.25	80.0%	-4.5%
X2	45.3%	2.21	1.65	60.6%	-25.2%
12	78.2%	1.28	1.20	83.3%	-6.1%
Draw no bet
DNB Charlton Athletic W	69.9%	1.43	–	–	–
DNB Ipswich Town W	30.1%	3.32	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	79.9%	1.25	1.16	86.2%	-7.3%
Under 1.5	20.1%	4.97	4.15	24.1%	-16.6%
Over 2.5	58.4%	1.71	1.62	61.7%	-5.4%
Under 2.5	41.6%	2.40	2.12	47.2%	-11.7%
Over 3.5	36.8%	2.72	2.52	39.7%	-7.3%
Under 3.5	63.2%	1.58	1.41	70.9%	-10.9%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	62.9%	1.59	1.53	65.4%	-3.7%
BTTS no	37.1%	2.70	2.24	44.6%	-16.9%
Half-time
HT 1	40.7%	2.46	–	–	–
HT X	38.0%	2.63	–	–	–
HT 2	21.3%	4.70	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickCharlton Athletic W to win

Probability54.7%

Fair odds1.83

Best odds1.94

EV per unit+6.0%

EV = 0.547 × 1.94 − 1 = +0.060 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.064 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Charlton Athletic W	Ipswich Town W
Sequence	LLLLWL	LWWDWL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-0-5	3-1-2
Points per match	0.50	1.67
Goals for / match	1.00	2.00
Goals against / match	2.50	1.33
Over 2.5	67%	83%
BTTS	50%	83%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	33%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Charlton Athletic W ahead at 55%, against 24% for Ipswich Town W and 22% for the draw.

Form

Charlton Athletic W, last six: L L L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 2–3 away at Crystal Palace W. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded.

Sequence for Ipswich Town W: L W W D W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Bristol City W. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Feb 2026): Ipswich Town W 1–1 Charlton Athletic W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Charlton Athletic W 1.92 · Ipswich Town W 1.19 · total 3.11. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Charlton Athletic W to win, probability 55%, odds 1.94 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Charlton Athletic W 2–1 Ipswich Town W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.