England WSL Cup Wed 11 Nov 2026 Full time

Sunderland W

WWLWW

59%P(1)14%P(X)26%P(2)

λ home: 2.17
λ away: 1.35
Σλ total: 3.52
P(over 2.5): 68%
P(BTTS): 66%
Modal score: 2–1 9.4%

Birmingham City W vs Sunderland W prediction & xG model: Birmingham City W to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Birmingham City W v Sunderland W: how the Arena called it

Full time: 3–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBirmingham City W to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Birmingham City W v Sunderland W are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (22 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Birmingham City W (home)	1.66	1.06	0.96	1.70
Sunderland W (away)	1.38	0.94	1.04	1.34

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.06 × 0.96 ≈ 1.70

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.04	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.57	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.48	30%
Blended total λ	3.52	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.17, λ_away = 1.35

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Birmingham City W λ = 2.17

011.4%

124.8%

226.9%

319.5%

410.6%

5+6.9%

Sunderland W λ = 1.35

026.0%

135.0%

223.6%

310.6%

43.6%

5+1.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Bir \ Sun012345+

03.04.02.71.2··

16.48.75.82.60.9·

27.09.46.32.81.0·

35.16.84.62.10.7·

42.73.72.51.1··

5+1.82.41.60.7··

Σ home-win cells: 56.2%
Σ draw cells: 20.5%
Σ away-win cells: 23.3%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 9.4%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Birmingham City W	45.3%	68.0%	47.2%	59.2%
X Draw	24.8%	8.0%	23.3%	14.4%
2 Sunderland W	29.9%	24.0%	29.5%	26.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Birmingham City W pick	59.2%	1.69	1.89	52.9%	+12.0%
X · Draw	14.4%	6.93	3.82	26.2%	-44.8%
2 · Sunderland W	26.3%	3.80	3.02	33.1%	-20.5%
Double chance
1X	73.7%	1.36	1.27	78.7%	-6.4%
X2	40.8%	2.45	1.69	59.2%	-31.1%
12	85.6%	1.17	1.16	86.2%	-0.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Birmingham City W	69.2%	1.44	–	–	–
DNB Sunderland W	30.8%	3.25	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	86.6%	1.15	–	–	–
Under 1.5	13.4%	7.47	–	–	–
Over 2.5	67.9%	1.47	1.34	74.6%	-9.1%
Under 2.5	32.1%	3.11	2.78	36.0%	-10.7%
Over 3.5	46.9%	2.13	1.95	51.3%	-8.6%
Under 3.5	53.1%	1.88	1.73	57.8%	-8.1%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	66.3%	1.51	1.35	74.1%	-10.5%
BTTS no	33.7%	2.97	2.79	35.8%	-6.0%
Half-time
HT 1	42.8%	2.33	–	–	–
HT X	35.1%	2.85	–	–	–
HT 2	22.0%	4.54	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBirmingham City W to win

Probability59.2%

Fair odds1.69

Best odds1.89

EV per unit+12.0%

EV = 0.592 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.120 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.135 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Birmingham City W	Sunderland W
Sequence	LLDWWD	WWLWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-2-2	5-0-1
Points per match	1.33	2.50
Goals for / match	1.67	2.00
Goals against / match	1.67	1.00
Over 2.5	50%	67%
BTTS	67%	67%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Birmingham City W ahead at 59%, against 26% for Sunderland W and 14% for the draw.

Form

Birmingham City W, last six: L L D W W D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–4 away at London City Lionesses W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded.

Sequence for Sunderland W: W W L W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 4–1 away at Durham W. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.

Head to head

Last meeting (Apr 2026): Birmingham City W 1–0 Sunderland W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Birmingham City W 2.17 · Sunderland W 1.35 · total 3.52. Goals expected – 68% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Birmingham City W to win, probability 59%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Birmingham City W 2–1 Sunderland W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.