England WSL Cup Wed 11 Nov 2026 · St Helens Stadium Full time

Liverpool W

LLDLL

4–1

Half-time 1–1

Aston Villa W

WWDDL

62%P(1)23%P(X)15%P(2)

λ home: 2.53
λ away: 1.29
Σλ total: 3.82
P(over 2.5): 68%
P(BTTS): 65%
Modal score: 2–1 9.0%

Liverpool W vs Aston Villa W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Liverpool W v Aston Villa W: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Liverpool W v Aston Villa W are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Liverpool W (home)	1.66	1.51	0.91	2.28
Aston Villa W (away)	1.38	1.06	0.98	1.43

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.51 × 0.91 ≈ 2.28

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.71	45%
Statistical xG feed	4.57	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.20	30%
Blended total λ	3.82	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.53, λ_away = 1.29

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Liverpool W λ = 2.53

08.0%

120.2%

225.5%

321.5%

413.6%

5+11.3%

Aston Villa W λ = 1.29

027.5%

135.5%

222.9%

39.9%

43.2%

5+1.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Liv \ Ast012345+

02.22.81.80.8··

15.57.24.62.00.6·

27.09.05.82.50.8·

35.97.64.92.10.7·

43.74.83.11.3··

5+3.14.02.61.1··

Σ home-win cells: 64.2%
Σ draw cells: 17.9%
Σ away-win cells: 17.9%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 9.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Liverpool W	56.0%	62.0%	61.5%	61.8%
X Draw	20.6%	24.0%	21.0%	22.7%
2 Aston Villa W	23.4%	14.0%	17.5%	15.5%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Liverpool W	61.8%	1.62	1.45	69.0%	-10.4%
X · Draw	22.7%	4.40	4.25	23.5%	-3.4%
2 · Aston Villa W	15.5%	6.47	5.10	19.6%	-21.1%
Double chance
1X	84.5%	1.18	1.08	92.6%	-8.7%
X2	38.2%	2.62	2.32	43.1%	-11.4%
12	77.3%	1.29	1.13	88.5%	-12.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Liverpool W	80.0%	1.25	–	–	–
DNB Aston Villa W	20.0%	5.00	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.13	88.5%	-4.1%
Under 1.5	15.1%	6.61	4.60	21.7%	-30.4%
Over 2.5	67.7%	1.48	1.46	68.5%	-1.1%
Under 2.5	32.3%	3.10	2.38	42.0%	-23.2%
Over 3.5	47.2%	2.12	2.22	45.0%	+4.7%
Under 3.5	52.8%	1.89	1.56	64.1%	-17.6%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	65.2%	1.53	1.57	63.7%	+2.4%
BTTS no	34.8%	2.88	2.16	46.3%	-24.9%
Half-time
HT 1	48.8%	2.05	–	–	–
HT X	32.4%	3.08	–	–	–
HT 2	18.8%	5.32	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability65.2%

Fair odds1.53

Best odds1.57

EV per unit+2.4%

EV = 0.652 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.042 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Liverpool W	Aston Villa W
Sequence	LLDLLL	LDDWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	0-1-5	3-2-1
Points per match	0.17	1.83
Goals for / match	1.33	1.50
Goals against / match	2.67	1.00
Over 2.5	83%	33%
BTTS	83%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Liverpool W 62% to win.

Form

Sequence for Liverpool W: L L D L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Arsenal W. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Aston Villa W: L D D W W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Manchester United W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Aston Villa W 2–1 Liverpool W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Liverpool W 2.53 · Aston Villa W 1.29 · total 3.82. Goals expected – 68% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Liverpool W 2–1 Aston Villa W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.