- λ home
- 1.80
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.0%
Fujieda MYFC vs Ventforet Kofu prediction & xG model: Fujieda MYFC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Fujieda MYFC v Ventforet Kofu: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFujieda MYFC to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Fujieda MYFC v Ventforet Kofu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fujieda MYFC (home) | 1.40 | 0.89 | 1.17 | 1.45 |
| Ventforet Kofu (away) | 1.22 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 0.89 × 1.17 ≈ 1.45
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.20 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.80, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fujieda MYFC | 52.8% | 69.0% | 48.6% | 60.4% |
| X Draw | 28.3% | 20.0% | 26.7% | 22.8% |
| 2 Ventforet Kofu | 18.9% | 11.0% | 24.7% | 16.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Fujieda MYFC pick | 60.4% | 1.65 | 1.84 | 54.3% | +11.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.38 | 3.35 | 29.9% | -23.6% | |
| 2 · Ventforet Kofu | 16.8% | 5.97 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -39.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -0.9% | |
| X2 | 39.6% | 2.53 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -30.8% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Fujieda MYFC | 78.3% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ventforet Kofu | 21.7% | 4.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -11.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -11.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -8.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -5.9% | |
| BTTS no | 46.2% | 2.16 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -11.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.0% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.8% | 6.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.604 × 1.84 − 1 = +0.112 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.133 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLDD | LLDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Fujieda MYFC 60% to win. Standings: Fujieda MYFC 14th on 19, Ventforet Kofu 20th on 12.
Form
Fujieda MYFC have zero wins from their last six (L L D L D D). Latest: 0–4 away at Yokohama FC. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Ventforet Kofu, last six: L L D D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–5 away at Vegalta Sendai. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Ventforet Kofu 0–1 Fujieda MYFC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Fujieda MYFC 1.80 · Ventforet Kofu 0.83 · total 2.63. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Fujieda MYFC to win, probability 60%, odds 1.84 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Fujieda MYFC 1–0 Ventforet Kofu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 18 Apr 2026Ventforet Kofu0–1Fujieda MYFC
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Fujieda MYFC vs Ventforet Kofu?
The Model pick is Fujieda MYFC to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.84 by the bookmakers.
What are the Fujieda MYFC v Ventforet Kofu probabilities?
Fujieda MYFC win 60%, draw 23%, Ventforet Kofu win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Fujieda MYFC vs Ventforet Kofu?
Fujieda MYFC 1–0 Ventforet Kofu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Fujieda MYFC vs Ventforet Kofu?
Fujieda MYFC 1.80, Ventforet Kofu 0.83 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Fujieda MYFC vs Ventforet Kofu?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Fujieda soccer stadium – J2 League.