- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 0.97
- Σλ total
- 2.84
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 10.9%
Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata prediction & xG model: Omiya Ardija to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Omiya Ardija v Montedio Yamagata: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOmiya Ardija to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Omiya Ardija v Montedio Yamagata are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omiya Ardija (home) | 1.40 | 1.41 | 0.87 | 1.71 |
| Montedio Yamagata (away) | 1.22 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.41 × 0.87 ≈ 1.71
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.44 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.18 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.84 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 0.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Omiya Ardija | 56.7% | 63.0% | 56.3% | 60.2% |
| X Draw | 25.1% | 17.0% | 22.1% | 19.1% |
| 2 Montedio Yamagata | 18.3% | 20.0% | 21.6% | 20.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Omiya Ardija pick | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -4.3% | |
| X · Draw | 19.1% | 5.22 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -22.5% | |
| 2 · Montedio Yamagata | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -14.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Omiya Ardija | 74.4% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Montedio Yamagata | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -11.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.4% | 4.91 | 4.95 | 20.2% | +0.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -15.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -0.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.9% | 2.78 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -18.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -2.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -12.0% | |
| BTTS no | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -3.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.8% | 5.61 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.602 × 1.59 − 1 = -0.043 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Omiya Ardija | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLL | LWWLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Omiya Ardija at 60%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Omiya Ardija 1st on 33, Montedio Yamagata 15th on 19.
Form
Omiya Ardija, last six: W W W D L L – three wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Tochigi City. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Montedio Yamagata: L W W L L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Iwaki. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Omiya Ardija 1.87 · Montedio Yamagata 0.97 · total 2.84. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Omiya Ardija to win, probability 60%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Omiya Ardija 1–0 Montedio Yamagata. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
The Model pick is Omiya Ardija to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.59 by the bookmakers.
What are the Omiya Ardija v Montedio Yamagata probabilities?
Omiya Ardija win 60%, draw 19%, Montedio Yamagata win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Omiya Ardija 1–0 Montedio Yamagata is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Omiya Ardija 1.87, Montedio Yamagata 0.97 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at NACK5 Stadium Omiya – J2 League.