- λ home
- 1.14
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 2.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Albirex Niigata v Tegevajaro Miyazaki: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Albirex Niigata v Tegevajaro Miyazaki are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (30 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex Niigata (home) | 1.40 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 1.08 |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (away) | 1.22 | 1.33 | 1.07 | 1.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 1.10 × 0.70 ≈ 1.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.82 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.44 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.14, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Albirex Niigata | 23.1% | 34.0% | 27.6% | 31.3% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 52.1% | 48.0% | 43.6% | 46.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Albirex Niigata | 31.3% | 3.19 | 3.24 | 30.9% | +1.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.1% | |
| 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -5.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -14.4% | |
| X2 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -14.8% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Albirex Niigata | 40.4% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 59.6% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -6.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -16.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.16 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -3.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -11.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -4.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -11.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -13.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.0% | 4.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.1% | 3.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.524 × 1.84 − 1 = -0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Albirex Niigata | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWL | WWWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tegevajaro Miyazaki narrowly ahead at 46%; Albirex Niigata 31%. Standings: Albirex Niigata 3rd on 32, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2nd on 32.
Form
Albirex Niigata have four wins from their last six (W W L W W L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Imabari. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki have five wins from their last six (W W W W W D). Latest: 2–1 away at Tokushima Vortis. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Albirex Niigata 1.14 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.46 · total 2.61. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.84 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Albirex Niigata 1–2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omiya Ardija | 17 | +13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 17 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Albirex Niigata | 17 | -3 | 32 |
| 4 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Yokohama FC | 17 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Shonan Bellmare | 17 | +3 | 26 |
| 9 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Fujieda MYFC | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 |  Montedio Yamagata | 17 | -3 | 19 |
| 16 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 17 |  Tochigi City | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 17 | -23 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.84 by the bookmakers.
What are the Albirex Niigata v Tegevajaro Miyazaki probabilities?
Albirex Niigata win 31%, draw 23%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Albirex Niigata 1–2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Albirex Niigata 1.14, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.46 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Denka Big Swan Stadium – J2 League.