- λ home
- 1.60
- λ away
- 0.67
- Σλ total
- 2.27
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.5%
Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sol de Mayo v Germinal de Rawson: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Sol de Mayo v Germinal de Rawson are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.97 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.27 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.60, λaway = 0.67
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sol de Mayo | – | 64.0% | 53.9% | 59.7% |
| X Draw | – | 22.0% | 29.0% | 24.9% |
| 2 Germinal de Rawson | – | 14.0% | 17.1% | 15.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sol de Mayo | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -0.2% | |
| X · Draw | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -22.7% | |
| 2 · Germinal de Rawson | 15.3% | 6.53 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -19.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -19.5% | |
| 12 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sol de Mayo | 79.6% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Germinal de Rawson | 20.4% | 4.90 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.4% | 3.18 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +2.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -12.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +0.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -19.1% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -1.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.8% | 2.05 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -11.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.9% | 7.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.769 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.016 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sol de Mayo | Germinal de Rawson |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDLL | WDWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sol de Mayo ahead at 60%, against 15% for Germinal de Rawson and 25% for the draw. Standings: Sol de Mayo 28th on 18, Germinal de Rawson 30th on 18.
Form
Sol de Mayo, last six: L L W D L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at San Martín Mendoza. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Sequence for Germinal de Rawson: W D W L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 5–1 at home to Santamarina. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Germinal de Rawson 1–0 Sol de Mayo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sol de Mayo 1.60 · Germinal de Rawson 0.67 · total 2.27. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 77%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.30. Most probable score: Sol de Mayo 1–0 Germinal de Rawson. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 May 2026Germinal de Rawson1–0Sol de Mayo
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 77, priced around 1.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sol de Mayo v Germinal de Rawson probabilities?
Sol de Mayo win 60%, draw 25%, Germinal de Rawson win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson?
Sol de Mayo 1–0 Germinal de Rawson is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson?
Sol de Mayo 1.60, Germinal de Rawson 0.67 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Sol de Mayo vs Germinal de Rawson?
Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Sol De Mayo – Torneo Federal A.