- λ home
- 1.42
- λ away
- 0.59
- Σλ total
- 2.01
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.0%
Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sportivo Las Parejas v Independiente De Chivilcoy: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sportivo Las Parejas v Independiente De Chivilcoy are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Las Parejas (home) | 1.20 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Independiente De Chivilcoy (away) | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.61 | 0.40 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.97 × 0.98 ≈ 1.15
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.55 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.68 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.29 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.01 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.42, λaway = 0.59
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sportivo Las Parejas | 53.6% | 61.0% | 55.0% | 58.5% |
| X Draw | 34.0% | 22.0% | 29.3% | 25.0% |
| 2 Independiente De Chivilcoy | 12.4% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 16.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.103 → 10.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sportivo Las Parejas | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -3.5% | |
| X · Draw | 25.0% | 3.99 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -22.4% | |
| 2 · Independiente De Chivilcoy | 16.5% | 6.07 | 5.75 | 17.4% | -5.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.1% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -12.8% | |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sportivo Las Parejas | 78.0% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Independiente De Chivilcoy | 22.0% | 4.55 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -11.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.0% | 2.70 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +1.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -14.6% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -0.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.1% | 5.53 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -21.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -1.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +10.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.3% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.2% | 7.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.637 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sportivo Las Parejas | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLDDD | LDDLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-5-1 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 83% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Sportivo Las Parejas 58%, draw 25%, Independiente De Chivilcoy 16%. Standings: Sportivo Las Parejas 15th on 24, Independiente De Chivilcoy 25th on 19.
Form
Sportivo Las Parejas, last six: D D L D D D – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Atletico Escobar. Only 0.2 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Independiente De Chivilcoy have zero wins from their last six (L D D L D L). Latest: 1–2 at home to Sarmiento Resistencia. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Sportivo Las Parejas 1, Independiente De Chivilcoy 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Independiente De Chivilcoy 1–1 Sportivo Las Parejas. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sportivo Las Parejas 1.42 · Independiente De Chivilcoy 0.59 · total 2.01. Low total: under 2.5 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Sportivo Las Parejas 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Independiente De Chivilcoy1–1Sportivo Las Parejas
- 17 May 2026Sportivo Las Parejas1–0Independiente De Chivilcoy
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sportivo Las Parejas v Independiente De Chivilcoy probabilities?
Sportivo Las Parejas win 58%, draw 25%, Independiente De Chivilcoy win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Sportivo Las Parejas 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Sportivo Las Parejas 1.42, Independiente De Chivilcoy 0.59 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Sportivo Las Parejas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio La Perrera – Torneo Federal A.