- λ home
- 1.30
- λ away
- 1.35
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
Sassuolo W vs Ternana W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sassuolo W 39% · draw 25% · Ternana W 36%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sassuolo W v Ternana W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sassuolo W v Ternana W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo W (home) | 1.50 | 0.72 | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Ternana W (away) | 1.54 | 0.77 | 1.15 | 1.36 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.50 × 0.72 × 1.12 ≈ 1.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.57 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.30, λaway = 1.35
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sassuolo W | 32.4% | 41.0% | 43.0% | 38.9% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 17.0% | 27.8% | 25.3% |
| 2 Ternana W | 39.8% | 42.0% | 29.2% | 35.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sassuolo W | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -18.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -17.8% | |
| 2 · Ternana W | 35.8% | 2.79 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +11.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -17.9% | |
| X2 | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -1.0% | |
| 12 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sassuolo W | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ternana W | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -5.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -8.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -4.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.6% | 3.63 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -6.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -12.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.4% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.562 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sassuolo W | Ternana W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDLLL | LDLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Sassuolo W 39%, draw 25%, Ternana W 36%. Standings: Sassuolo W 12th on 2, Ternana W 8th on 7.
Form
Sassuolo W have zero wins from their last six (L D D L L L). Latest: 1–2 away at Juventus W. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Ternana W, last six: L D L W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–4 at home to Fiorentina W. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Sassuolo W 1, Ternana W 0, drawn 1, 2.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Sassuolo W 2–0 Ternana W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sassuolo W 1.30 · Ternana W 1.35 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Sassuolo W 2–1 Ternana W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Sep 2026Sassuolo W2–0Ternana W
- 22 Mar 2026Ternana W1–1Sassuolo W
Serie A Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma W | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 |  Inter Milano W | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 3 |  Fiorentina W | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Como 1907 W | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 5 |  Juventus W | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 |  Como W | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 |  AC Milan W | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Ternana W | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Napoli W | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Parma W | 7 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 |  Lazio W | 7 | -7 | 3 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo W | 6 | -8 | 2 |
More Serie A Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sassuolo W vs Ternana W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sassuolo W v Ternana W probabilities?
Sassuolo W win 39%, draw 25%, Ternana W win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Sassuolo W vs Ternana W?
Sassuolo W 2–1 Ternana W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sassuolo W vs Ternana W?
Sassuolo W 1.30, Ternana W 1.35 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Sassuolo W vs Ternana W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:30 WAT, at Stadio Enzo Ricci – Serie A Women.