- λ home
- 1.50
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Como 1907 W vs Como W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Como 1907 W 45% · draw 21% · Como W 34%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Como 1907 W v Como W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Como 1907 W v Como W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.78 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.50, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Como 1907 W | – | 45.0% | 44.8% | 44.9% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.3% | 20.9% |
| 2 Como W | – | 38.0% | 28.9% | 34.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Como 1907 W | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -28.9% | |
| 2 · Como W | 34.2% | 2.93 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +5.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -15.7% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -8.0% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Como 1907 W | 56.8% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Como W | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.3% | 4.11 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -8.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -5.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.9% | 3.13 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -12.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +3.8% | |
| BTTS no | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -20.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.5% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.0% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.622 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.038 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.057 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Como 1907 W | Como W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDWWW | LWDDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Como 1907 W ahead at 45%, against 34% for Como W and 21% for the draw. Standings: Como 1907 W 3rd on 11, Como W 6th on 8.
Form
Sequence for Como 1907 W: L D D W W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–4 at home to Roma W. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Como W have two wins from their last six (L W D D L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Parma W. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Como W 2–1 Como 1907 W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Como 1907 W 1.50 · Como W 1.27 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Como 1907 W 2–1 Como W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Sep 2026Como W2–1Como 1907 W
Serie A Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma W | 6 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 |  Inter Milano W | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 3 |  Como 1907 W | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 4 |  Fiorentina W | 6 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus W | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 |  Como W | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 |  Ternana W | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 8 |  AC Milan W | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 |  Napoli W | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 |  Parma W | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Lazio W | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo W | 6 | -8 | 2 |
More Serie A Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Como 1907 W vs Como W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Como 1907 W v Como W probabilities?
Como 1907 W win 45%, draw 21%, Como W win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Como 1907 W vs Como W?
Como 1907 W 2–1 Como W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Como 1907 W vs Como W?
Como 1907 W 1.50, Como W 1.27 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Como 1907 W vs Como W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia – Serie A Women.