- λ home
- 2.00
- λ away
- 1.08
- Σλ total
- 3.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Inter Milano W vs Juventus W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Inter Milano W 52% · draw 22% · Juventus W 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Inter Milano W v Juventus W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Inter Milano W v Juventus W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Milano W (home) | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1.13 | 2.18 |
| Juventus W (away) | 1.54 | 1.14 | 0.53 | 0.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.50 × 1.28 × 1.13 ≈ 2.18
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.11 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.00, λaway = 1.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inter Milano W | 65.0% | 47.0% | 44.7% | 52.3% |
| X Draw | 20.3% | 17.0% | 25.5% | 21.7% |
| 2 Juventus W | 14.8% | 36.0% | 29.8% | 26.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inter Milano W | 52.3% | 1.91 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +4.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.60 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -24.0% | |
| 2 · Juventus W | 26.0% | 3.85 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -22.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -1.6% | |
| X2 | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -23.6% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inter Milano W | 66.8% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventus W | 33.2% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.2% | 4.95 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -12.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -10.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.3% | 2.76 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -4.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.3% | |
| BTTS no | 38.4% | 2.60 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -15.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.4% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.9% | 5.29 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.616 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.003 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inter Milano W | Juventus W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLDW | LWWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Inter Milano W ahead at 52%, against 26% for Juventus W and 22% for the draw. Standings: Inter Milano W 2nd on 16, Juventus W 5th on 9.
Form
Inter Milano W, last six: L W W L D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–4 at home to Manchester City W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Juventus W: L W W W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–6 at home to Lyon W. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Inter Milano W 0, Juventus W 1, drawn 1, 3.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Juventus W 1–0 Inter Milano W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inter Milano W 2.00 · Juventus W 1.08 · total 3.08. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Inter Milano W 2–1 Juventus W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Sep 2026Juventus W1–0Inter Milano W
- 10 May 2026Juventus W3–3Inter Milano W
Serie A Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma W | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 |  Inter Milano W | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 3 |  Fiorentina W | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Como 1907 W | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 5 |  Juventus W | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 |  Como W | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 |  AC Milan W | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Ternana W | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Napoli W | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Parma W | 7 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 |  Lazio W | 7 | -7 | 3 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo W | 6 | -8 | 2 |
More Serie A Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inter Milano W vs Juventus W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Inter Milano W v Juventus W probabilities?
Inter Milano W win 52%, draw 22%, Juventus W win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Inter Milano W vs Juventus W?
Inter Milano W 2–1 Juventus W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inter Milano W vs Juventus W?
Inter Milano W 2.00, Juventus W 1.08 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Inter Milano W vs Juventus W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stadio Ernesto Breda – Serie A Women.