- λ home
- 1.28
- λ away
- 2.50
- Σλ total
- 3.78
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.1%
VfL Wolfsburg W vs Bayern Munich W prediction & xG model: Bayern Munich W to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: VfL Wolfsburg W 19% · draw 15% · Bayern Munich W 65%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
VfL Wolfsburg W v Bayern Munich W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for VfL Wolfsburg W v Bayern Munich W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.33 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.32 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.78 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.28, λaway = 2.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 VfL Wolfsburg W | – | 16.0% | 24.3% | 19.5% |
| X Draw | – | 9.0% | 23.7% | 15.2% |
| 2 Bayern Munich W | – | 75.0% | 52.0% | 65.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · VfL Wolfsburg W | 19.5% | 5.13 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -27.9% | |
| X · Draw | 15.2% | 6.59 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -42.4% | |
| 2 · Bayern Munich W pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +13.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.7% | 2.89 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -33.8% | |
| X2 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.8% | |
| 12 | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +0.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB VfL Wolfsburg W | 23.0% | 4.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bayern Munich W | 77.0% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -3.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.9% | 7.19 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -23.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -1.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -17.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -1.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -12.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.0% | |
| BTTS no | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.8% | 5.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.7% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 48.5% | 2.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.130 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.179 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | VfL Wolfsburg W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWW | WWWDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 6-0-0 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 4.83 | 3.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Bayern Munich W 65%, VfL Wolfsburg W 19%. Standings: VfL Wolfsburg W 2nd on 24, Bayern Munich W 1st on 27.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg W, last six: W W W W W W – six wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Feyenoord W. 4.8 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Bayern Munich W: W W W D W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Paris Saint Germain W. Scoring rate: 3.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Previous 3: VfL Wolfsburg W 0, Bayern Munich W 3, drawn 0, 4.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Bayern Munich W 3–0 VfL Wolfsburg W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG VfL Wolfsburg W 1.28 · Bayern Munich W 2.50 · total 3.78. Goals expected – 69% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Bayern Munich W to win, probability 65%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: VfL Wolfsburg W 1–2 Bayern Munich W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Aug 2026Bayern Munich W3–0VfL Wolfsburg W
- 14 May 2026VfL Wolfsburg W0–4Bayern Munich W
- 22 Feb 2026Bayern Munich W4–1VfL Wolfsburg W
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 9 | +24 | 27 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 9 | +20 | 24 |
| 3 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 |  Werder Bremen W | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Union Berlin W | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 9 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 12 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV W | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 9 | -25 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for VfL Wolfsburg W vs Bayern Munich W?
The Model pick is Bayern Munich W to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the VfL Wolfsburg W v Bayern Munich W probabilities?
VfL Wolfsburg W win 19%, draw 15%, Bayern Munich W win 65%.
What is the most probable score for VfL Wolfsburg W vs Bayern Munich W?
VfL Wolfsburg W 1–2 Bayern Munich W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for VfL Wolfsburg W vs Bayern Munich W?
VfL Wolfsburg W 1.28, Bayern Munich W 2.50 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is VfL Wolfsburg W vs Bayern Munich W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:55 WAT, at AOK Stadion – Frauen Bundesliga.