- λ home
- 2.12
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 3.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.7%
Werder Bremen W vs Union Berlin W prediction & xG model: Werder Bremen W to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Werder Bremen W v Union Berlin W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipWerder Bremen W to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Werder Bremen W v Union Berlin W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen W (home) | 1.91 | 1.10 | 1.01 | 2.12 |
| Union Berlin W (away) | 1.66 | 0.99 | 0.83 | 1.37 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 1.10 × 1.01 ≈ 2.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.49 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.56 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.12, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Werder Bremen W | 54.0% | 64.0% | 46.9% | 56.8% |
| X Draw | 21.7% | 20.0% | 24.2% | 21.8% |
| 2 Union Berlin W | 24.3% | 16.0% | 28.9% | 21.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.116 → 11.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Werder Bremen W pick | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +8.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.8% | 4.59 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -19.5% | |
| 2 · Union Berlin W | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -33.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +0.6% | |
| X2 | 43.2% | 2.32 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -25.3% | |
| 12 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Werder Bremen W | 72.6% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Union Berlin W | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.8% | 5.97 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -16.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -10.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -5.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -7.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 32.5% | 3.07 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -14.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.9% | 2.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.9% | 4.79 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.568 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.094 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Werder Bremen W | Union Berlin W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWLW | DDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Werder Bremen W 57%, draw 22%, Union Berlin W 21%. Standings: Werder Bremen W 3rd on 19, Union Berlin W 8th on 11.
Form
Sequence for Werder Bremen W: L D W W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Bayern Munich W. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Union Berlin W: D D D W W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to 1899 Hoffenheim W. 3.2 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Union Berlin W 4–1 Werder Bremen W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Werder Bremen W 2.12 · Union Berlin W 1.25 · total 3.38. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 67%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Werder Bremen W to win, probability 57%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Werder Bremen W 2–1 Union Berlin W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 Mar 2026Union Berlin W4–1Werder Bremen W
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 10 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 10 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Werder Bremen W | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin W | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Werder Bremen W vs Union Berlin W?
The Model pick is Werder Bremen W to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Werder Bremen W v Union Berlin W probabilities?
Werder Bremen W win 57%, draw 22%, Union Berlin W win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Werder Bremen W vs Union Berlin W?
Werder Bremen W 2–1 Union Berlin W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Werder Bremen W vs Union Berlin W?
Werder Bremen W 2.12, Union Berlin W 1.25 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Werder Bremen W vs Union Berlin W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Weserstadion Platz 11 – Frauen Bundesliga.