- λ home
- 2.16
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 3.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W prediction & xG model: 1899 Hoffenheim W to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
1899 Hoffenheim W v SC Freiburg W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tip1899 Hoffenheim W to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for 1899 Hoffenheim W v SC Freiburg W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim W (home) | 1.91 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.74 |
| SC Freiburg W (away) | 1.66 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 0.85 × 1.07 ≈ 1.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.73 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.32 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.16, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 1899 Hoffenheim W | 53.9% | 73.0% | 52.7% | 64.5% |
| X Draw | 24.9% | 8.0% | 22.4% | 14.0% |
| 2 SC Freiburg W | 21.2% | 19.0% | 24.9% | 21.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.116 → 11.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · 1899 Hoffenheim W pick | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +9.6% | |
| X · Draw | 14.0% | 7.12 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -43.8% | |
| 2 · SC Freiburg W | 21.5% | 4.66 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -22.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.8% | |
| X2 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -29.0% | |
| 12 | 86.0% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB 1899 Hoffenheim W | 75.0% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| DNB SC Freiburg W | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 6.00 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -8.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -5.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -10.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.3% | |
| BTTS no | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -6.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.2% | 5.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.645 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.137 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | 1899 Hoffenheim W | SC Freiburg W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWWW | LWLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – 1899 Hoffenheim W 64% to win. Standings: 1899 Hoffenheim W 10th on 10, SC Freiburg W 11th on 10.
Form
1899 Hoffenheim W, last six: D L L W W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Union Berlin W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
SC Freiburg W have three wins from their last six (L W L L W W). Latest: 0–4 at home to Nürnberg W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): SC Freiburg W 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG 1899 Hoffenheim W 2.16 · SC Freiburg W 1.10 · total 3.25. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: 1899 Hoffenheim W to win, probability 64%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: 1899 Hoffenheim W 2–1 SC Freiburg W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Mar 2026SC Freiburg W1–21899 Hoffenheim W
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 9 | +24 | 27 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 9 | +20 | 24 |
| 3 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 |  Werder Bremen W | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Union Berlin W | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 9 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for 1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W?
The Model pick is 1899 Hoffenheim W to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the 1899 Hoffenheim W v SC Freiburg W probabilities?
1899 Hoffenheim W win 64%, draw 14%, SC Freiburg W win 21%.
What is the most probable score for 1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W?
1899 Hoffenheim W 2–1 SC Freiburg W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for 1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W?
1899 Hoffenheim W 2.16, SC Freiburg W 1.10 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is 1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion – Frauen Bundesliga.