England EFL Trophy Tue 6 Oct 2026 · Abbey Stadium Full time

Cambridge United

DWDWD

2–1

Half-time 1–0

Northampton

DDWLL

59%P(1)20%P(X)21%P(2)

λ home: 2.50
λ away: 1.50
Σλ total: 4.00
P(over 2.5): 76%
P(BTTS): 66%
Modal score: 2–1 8.6%

Cambridge United vs Northampton prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Cambridge United v Northampton: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.

Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.

Model sheet

How the numbers for Cambridge United v Northampton are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Cambridge United (home)	1.66	1.14	0.81	1.53
Northampton (away)	1.38	0.63	0.74	0.64

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.14 × 0.81 ≈ 1.53

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.17	64%
Statistical xG feed	4.00	36%
Blended total λ	4.00	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.50, λ_away = 1.50

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Cambridge United λ = 2.50

08.2%

120.5%

225.6%

321.4%

413.4%

5+10.9%

Northampton λ = 1.50

022.4%

133.5%

225.1%

312.5%

44.7%

5+1.8%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Cam \ Nor012345+

01.82.72.11.0··

14.66.95.12.61.0·

25.78.66.43.21.2·

34.87.25.42.71.0·

43.04.53.41.70.6·

5+2.43.72.71.40.5·

Σ home-win cells: 59.5%
Σ draw cells: 18.6%
Σ away-win cells: 21.9%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 8.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Cambridge United	57.5%	65.0%	50.6%	59.0%
X Draw	27.2%	15.0%	26.1%	19.6%
2 Northampton	15.3%	20.0%	23.3%	21.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.129 → 12.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Cambridge United	59.0%	1.70	1.75	57.1%	+3.2%
X · Draw	19.6%	5.09	3.40	29.4%	-33.2%
2 · Northampton	21.4%	4.67	3.80	26.3%	-18.7%
Double chance
1X	78.6%	1.27	1.22	82.0%	-4.1%
X2	41.0%	2.44	1.91	52.4%	-21.6%
12	80.4%	1.24	1.25	80.0%	+0.4%
Draw no bet
DNB Cambridge United	73.4%	1.36	–	–	–
DNB Northampton	26.6%	3.76	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	90.8%	1.10	–	–	–
Under 1.5	9.2%	10.92	–	–	–
Over 2.5	76.2%	1.31	–	–	–
Under 2.5	23.8%	4.20	–	–	–
Over 3.5	56.7%	1.77	–	–	–
Under 3.5	43.3%	2.31	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	65.9%	1.52	1.62	61.7%	+6.8%
BTTS no	34.1%	2.93	2.10	47.6%	-28.4%
Half-time
HT 1	46.0%	2.18	–	–	–
HT X	32.2%	3.11	–	–	–
HT 2	21.9%	4.57	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability65.9%

Fair odds1.52

Best odds1.62

EV per unit+6.8%

EV = 0.659 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.068 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.109 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Cambridge United	Northampton
Sequence	DWDWDW	LLWDDL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-3-0	1-2-3
Points per match	2.00	0.83
Goals for / match	2.00	0.50
Goals against / match	1.17	1.00
Over 2.5	67%	0%
BTTS	100%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	0%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Cambridge United 59%, draw 20%, Northampton 21%. Standings: Cambridge United 2nd on 6, Northampton 1st on 9.

Form

Cambridge United, last six: D W D W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to AFC Wimbledon. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.

Northampton, last six: L L W D D L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Rotherham. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.

Head to head

Last meeting (Jul 2026): Cambridge United 0–0 Northampton. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Cambridge United 2.50 · Northampton 1.50 · total 4.00. High total: over 2.5 76%, BTTS 66%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Cambridge United 2–1 Northampton. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.