England EFL Trophy Tue 6 Oct 2026 · New Meadow Full time

Shrewsbury

WDLDW

0–2

Half-time 0–0

Stockport County

LWLDW

15%P(1)19%P(X)66%P(2)

λ home: 1.71
λ away: 3.29
Σλ total: 5.00
P(over 2.5): 88%
P(BTTS): 67%
Modal score: 1–3 6.8%

Shrewsbury vs Stockport County prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Shrewsbury v Stockport County: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Shrewsbury v Stockport County are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Shrewsbury (home)	1.66	0.88	0.66	0.97
Stockport County (away)	1.38	1.29	0.95	1.68

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.88 × 0.66 ≈ 0.97

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.64	64%
Statistical xG feed	5.00	36%
Blended total λ	5.00	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.71, λ_away = 3.29

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Shrewsbury λ = 1.71

018.1%

130.9%

226.5%

315.1%

46.5%

5+3.0%

Stockport County λ = 3.29

03.7%

112.3%

220.2%

322.1%

418.2%

5+23.5%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Shr \ Sto012345+

00.72.23.64.03.34.2

11.23.86.26.85.67.3

21.03.25.35.84.86.2

30.61.93.03.32.73.6

4·0.81.31.41.21.5

5+··0.60.70.60.7

Σ home-win cells: 16.9%
Σ draw cells: 15.0%
Σ away-win cells: 68.0%
Most probable score: 1–3 · 6.8%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Shrewsbury	21.3%	11.0%	19.7%	14.7%
X Draw	25.5%	15.0%	25.4%	19.4%
2 Stockport County	53.2%	74.0%	54.9%	66.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.125 → 12.5% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Shrewsbury	14.7%	6.81	4.50	22.2%	-34.0%
X · Draw	19.4%	5.16	3.50	28.6%	-32.2%
2 · Stockport County	66.0%	1.52	1.62	61.7%	+6.9%
Double chance
1X	34.0%	2.94	2.10	47.6%	-28.5%
X2	85.3%	1.17	1.17	85.5%	-0.2%
12	80.6%	1.24	1.25	80.0%	+0.8%
Draw no bet
DNB Shrewsbury	18.2%	5.49	–	–	–
DNB Stockport County	81.8%	1.22	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	96.0%	1.04	–	–	–
Under 1.5	4.0%	24.74	–	–	–
Over 2.5	87.5%	1.14	–	–	–
Under 2.5	12.5%	8.02	–	–	–
Over 3.5	73.5%	1.36	–	–	–
Under 3.5	26.5%	3.77	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	67.0%	1.49	1.70	58.8%	+13.9%
BTTS no	33.0%	3.03	2.00	50.0%	-34.0%
Half-time
HT 1	19.6%	5.11	–	–	–
HT X	27.0%	3.71	–	–	–
HT 2	53.5%	1.87	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability67.0%

Fair odds1.49

Best odds1.70

EV per unit+13.9%

EV = 0.670 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.139 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.198 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Shrewsbury	Stockport County
Sequence	WDLDWL	WDLWLW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-2-2	3-1-2
Points per match	1.33	1.67
Goals for / match	1.17	2.17
Goals against / match	1.17	1.17
Over 2.5	33%	50%
BTTS	50%	33%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	33%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: Stockport County 66%, Shrewsbury 15%. Standings: Shrewsbury 3rd on 3, Stockport County 2nd on 5.

Form

Shrewsbury have two wins from their last six (W D L D W L). Latest: 2–1 away at Grimsby. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Sequence for Stockport County: W D L W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Peterborough. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Shrewsbury 1.71 · Stockport County 3.29 · total 5.00. Goals expected – 88% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Shrewsbury 1–3 Stockport County. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.