England EFL Trophy Tue 6 Oct 2026 · The Crown Ground Full time

Accrington ST

LDDDW

1–1

Half-time 0–0Pens 5–4

Salford City

DWLWW

22%P(1)20%P(X)58%P(2)

λ home: 1.97
λ away: 3.03
Σλ total: 5.00
P(over 2.5): 88%
P(BTTS): 71%
Modal score: 1–3 6.2%

Accrington ST vs Salford City prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Accrington ST v Salford City: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Accrington ST v Salford City are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Accrington ST (home)	1.66	1.10	0.78	1.43
Salford City (away)	1.38	1.22	0.81	1.36

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.10 × 0.78 ≈ 1.43

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.79	64%
Statistical xG feed	5.00	36%
Blended total λ	5.00	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.97, λ_away = 3.03

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Accrington ST λ = 1.97

014.0%

127.5%

227.1%

317.7%

48.7%

5+5.0%

Salford City λ = 3.03

04.8%

114.6%

222.2%

322.4%

417.0%

5+19.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Acc \ Sal012345+

00.72.03.13.12.42.7

11.34.06.16.24.75.2

21.34.06.06.14.65.1

30.92.63.94.03.03.4

4·1.31.92.01.51.7

5+·0.71.11.10.80.9

Σ home-win cells: 23.6%
Σ draw cells: 17.1%
Σ away-win cells: 59.3%
Most probable score: 1–3 · 6.2%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Accrington ST	38.2%	18.0%	27.3%	21.9%
X Draw	26.5%	16.0%	26.1%	20.3%
2 Salford City	35.3%	66.0%	46.5%	57.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.125 → 12.5% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Accrington ST	21.9%	4.56	3.25	30.8%	-28.7%
X · Draw	20.3%	4.94	3.40	29.4%	-31.1%
2 · Salford City	57.8%	1.73	1.91	52.4%	+10.4%
Double chance
1X	42.2%	2.37	1.80	55.6%	-24.1%
X2	78.1%	1.28	1.29	77.5%	+0.7%
12	79.7%	1.25	1.25	80.0%	-0.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Accrington ST	27.5%	3.64	–	–	–
DNB Salford City	72.5%	1.38	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	96.0%	1.04	–	–	–
Under 1.5	4.0%	24.74	–	–	–
Over 2.5	87.5%	1.14	–	–	–
Under 2.5	12.5%	8.02	–	–	–
Over 3.5	73.5%	1.36	–	–	–
Under 3.5	26.5%	3.77	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	70.8%	1.41	1.50	66.7%	+6.2%
BTTS no	29.2%	3.43	2.40	41.7%	-29.9%
Half-time
HT 1	24.3%	4.11	–	–	–
HT X	28.2%	3.55	–	–	–
HT 2	47.5%	2.10	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability70.8%

Fair odds1.41

Best odds1.50

EV per unit+6.2%

EV = 0.708 × 1.50 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.124 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Accrington ST	Salford City
Sequence	WDDDLW	WWLWDW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-3-1	4-1-1
Points per match	1.50	2.17
Goals for / match	1.67	1.83
Goals against / match	1.33	1.00
Over 2.5	50%	50%
BTTS	67%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	17%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Marginal away preference, 58% against 22%. Standings: Accrington ST 3rd on 4, Salford City 1st on 9.

Form

Accrington ST have two wins from their last six (W D D D L W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Cheltenham. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.

Salford City, last six: W W L W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Fleetwood Town. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Accrington ST 1.97 · Salford City 3.03 · total 5.00. High total: over 2.5 88%, BTTS 71%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 71%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.41. Most probable score: Accrington ST 1–3 Salford City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.