- λ home
- 1.63
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
Inhulets vs Probiy Horodenka prediction & xG model: Either team to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Inhulets 49% · draw 17% · Probiy Horodenka 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Inhulets v Probiy Horodenka: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Inhulets v Probiy Horodenka are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.90 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.63, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inhulets | – | 53.0% | 44.3% | 49.4% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 26.3% | 17.4% |
| 2 Probiy Horodenka | – | 36.0% | 29.3% | 33.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.100 → 10.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inhulets | 49.4% | 2.03 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.4% | 5.73 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -39.8% | |
| 2 · Probiy Horodenka | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +2.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.8% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 50.6% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| 12 pick | 82.6% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inhulets | 59.8% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Probiy Horodenka | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.5% | 4.66 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 46.6% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.8% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.9% | 4.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inhulets | Probiy Horodenka |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWLLL | DDLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Inhulets ahead at 49%, against 33% for Probiy Horodenka and 17% for the draw. Standings: Inhulets 10th on 18, Probiy Horodenka 14th on 11.
Form
Inhulets have one win from their last six (D L W L L L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Kulykiv. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Probiy Horodenka have two wins from their last six (D D L D W W). Latest: 1–1 away at UCSA. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Inhulets 1, Probiy Horodenka 0, drawn 1, 4.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Probiy Horodenka 2–2 Inhulets. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inhulets 1.63 · Probiy Horodenka 1.27 · total 2.90. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Either team to win, probability 83%. Most probable score: Inhulets 2–1 Probiy Horodenka. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Probiy Horodenka2–2Inhulets
- 3 May 2026Inhulets3–1Probiy Horodenka
Persha Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Yarud Mariupol' | 15 | +9 | 28 |
| 3 |  Oleksandria | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 14 | +6 | 26 |
| 5 |  Kulykiv | 15 | +11 | 25 |
| 6 |  SK Poltava | 15 | +11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Nyva Ternopil | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 8 |  Metal Kharkiv | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Kyiv | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 10 |  Inhulets | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Prykarpattia | 15 | -5 | 17 |
| 12 |  UCSA | 15 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 14 | -14 | 13 |
| 14 |  Probiy Horodenka | 15 | -20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Chernihiv | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 |  Polissya II | 15 | -11 | 9 |
More Persha Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inhulets vs Probiy Horodenka?
The Model pick is Either team to win with a model probability of 83.
What are the Inhulets v Probiy Horodenka probabilities?
Inhulets win 49%, draw 17%, Probiy Horodenka win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Inhulets vs Probiy Horodenka?
Inhulets 2–1 Probiy Horodenka is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inhulets vs Probiy Horodenka?
Inhulets 1.63, Probiy Horodenka 1.27 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Inhulets vs Probiy Horodenka?
Monday 16 November 2026, 10:00 WAT – Persha Liga.