- λ home
- 2.00
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 3.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.7%
UCSA vs Polissya II prediction & xG model: UCSA to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: UCSA 54% · draw 22% · Polissya II 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
UCSA v Polissya II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for UCSA v Polissya II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCSA (home) | 1.50 | 0.93 | 1.46 | 2.04 |
| Polissya II (away) | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.15 | 1.29 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.50 × 0.93 × 1.46 ≈ 2.04
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.33 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.00, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 UCSA | 54.2% | 62.0% | 49.7% | 54.1% |
| X Draw | 22.2% | 18.0% | 24.6% | 22.3% |
| 2 Polissya II | 23.6% | 20.0% | 25.7% | 23.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.082 → 8.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · UCSA pick | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.86 | 53.8% | +0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -16.5% | |
| 2 · Polissya II | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -15.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.4% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 45.9% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB UCSA | 69.6% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Polissya II | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.4% | 6.10 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 48.5% | 2.06 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.0% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.9% | 4.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.541 × 1.86 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.008 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | UCSA | Polissya II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWDLL | LDLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: UCSA 54%, draw 22%, Polissya II 24%. Standings: UCSA 12th on 15, Polissya II 16th on 9.
Form
UCSA, last six: D L W D L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Probiy Horodenka. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Polissya II have zero wins from their last six (L D L D L D). Latest: 2–4 away at Nyva Ternopil. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Polissya II 2–2 UCSA. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG UCSA 2.00 · Polissya II 1.26 · total 3.26. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: UCSA to win, probability 54%, odds 1.86 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: UCSA 2–1 Polissya II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Jul 2026Polissya II2–2UCSA
Persha Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Yarud Mariupol' | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 3 |  Oleksandria | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 14 | +6 | 26 |
| 5 |  Kulykiv | 15 | +11 | 25 |
| 6 |  SK Poltava | 15 | +11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Nyva Ternopil | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 8 |  Metal Kharkiv | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Kyiv | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 10 |  Inhulets | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Prykarpattia | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 12 |  UCSA | 15 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 15 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 |  Probiy Horodenka | 15 | -20 | 11 |
| 15 |  Chernihiv | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 |  Polissya II | 15 | -11 | 9 |
More Persha Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for UCSA vs Polissya II?
The Model pick is UCSA to win with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.86 by the bookmakers.
What are the UCSA v Polissya II probabilities?
UCSA win 54%, draw 22%, Polissya II win 24%.
What is the most probable score for UCSA vs Polissya II?
UCSA 2–1 Polissya II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for UCSA vs Polissya II?
UCSA 2.00, Polissya II 1.26 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is UCSA vs Polissya II?
Monday 16 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – Persha Liga.