Belgium First Amateur Division Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Gemeentelijk Sportpark Full time

Thes Sport

LDWWW

2–1

Half-time 1–0

Mandel United

WWWWW

46%P(1)22%P(X)32%P(2)

λ home: 1.53
λ away: 1.24
Σλ total: 2.77
P(over 2.5): 52%
P(BTTS): 58%
Modal score: 1–1 11.9%

Thes Sport vs Mandel United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Thes Sport v Mandel United: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Thes Sport v Mandel United are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Thes Sport (home)	1.62	1.05	0.76	1.28
Mandel United (away)	1.44	1.14	0.78	1.29

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.62 × 1.05 × 0.76 ≈ 1.28

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.57	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.82	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.72	30%
Blended total λ	2.77	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.53, λ_away = 1.24

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Thes Sport λ = 1.53

021.7%

133.1%

225.3%

312.9%

44.9%

5+2.0%

Mandel United λ = 1.24

029.0%

135.9%

222.2%

39.2%

42.8%

5+0.9%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

The \ Man012345+

06.37.84.82.00.6·

19.6127.43.00.9·

27.39.15.62.30.7·

33.74.62.91.2··

41.41.81.1···

5+0.60.7····

Σ home-win cells: 44.0%
Σ draw cells: 25.2%
Σ away-win cells: 30.8%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 11.9%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Thes Sport	36.0%	47.0%	43.4%	45.5%
X Draw	27.9%	18.0%	28.0%	22.2%
2 Mandel United	36.1%	35.0%	28.5%	32.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Thes Sport	45.5%	2.20	2.05	48.8%	-6.7%
X · Draw	22.2%	4.50	3.18	31.4%	-29.4%
2 · Mandel United	32.3%	3.10	3.12	32.1%	+0.7%
Double chance
1X	67.7%	1.48	1.25	80.0%	-15.4%
X2	54.5%	1.84	1.58	63.3%	-13.9%
12	77.8%	1.29	1.24	80.6%	-3.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Thes Sport	58.5%	1.71	–	–	–
DNB Mandel United	41.5%	2.41	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	75.2%	1.33	1.22	82.0%	-8.2%
Under 1.5	24.8%	4.04	3.50	28.6%	-13.4%
Over 2.5	51.8%	1.93	1.79	55.9%	-7.4%
Under 2.5	48.2%	2.07	1.88	53.2%	-9.3%
Over 3.5	30.5%	3.28	2.92	34.2%	-10.9%
Under 3.5	69.5%	1.44	1.31	76.3%	-9.0%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	58.5%	1.71	1.63	61.3%	-4.7%
BTTS no	41.5%	2.41	2.06	48.5%	-14.5%
Half-time
HT 1	33.3%	3.00	–	–	–
HT X	41.5%	2.41	–	–	–
HT 2	25.2%	3.96	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability58.5%

Fair odds1.71

Best odds1.63

EV per unit-4.7%

EV = 0.585 × 1.63 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Thes Sport	Mandel United
Sequence	WWWDLD	WWWWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	6-0-0
Points per match	1.83	3.00
Goals for / match	1.50	2.50
Goals against / match	0.83	0.83
Over 2.5	50%	50%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	17%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Thes Sport 46%, draw 22%, Mandel United 32%.

Form

Thes Sport have three wins from their last six (W W W D L D). Latest: 2–1 away at Houtvenne. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.

Mandel United have six wins from their last six (W W W W W W). Latest: 3–1 at home to Cercle Brugge II. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Thes Sport 1.53 · Mandel United 1.24 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 58%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Thes Sport 2–1 Mandel United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.