- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 0.94
- Σλ total
- 2.81
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.3%
Rochefort vs Tubize prediction & xG model: Rochefort to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Rochefort v Tubize: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipRochefort to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Rochefort v Tubize are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochefort (home) | 1.62 | 1.21 | 0.84 | 1.66 |
| Tubize (away) | 1.44 | 1.08 | 0.89 | 1.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.21 × 0.84 ≈ 1.66
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.71 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.81 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 0.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rochefort | 43.5% | 74.0% | 47.9% | 63.0% |
| X Draw | 25.0% | 7.0% | 25.7% | 14.9% |
| 2 Tubize | 31.5% | 19.0% | 26.4% | 22.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rochefort pick | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.86 | 53.8% | +17.2% | |
| X · Draw | 14.9% | 6.72 | 3.46 | 28.9% | -48.5% | |
| 2 · Tubize | 22.1% | 4.53 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -25.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.9% | |
| X2 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -36.4% | |
| 12 | 85.1% | 1.17 | 1.21 | 82.6% | +3.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rochefort | 74.1% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tubize | 25.9% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 4.39 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -8.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -9.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -6.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.5% | 3.08 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -13.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -7.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -8.7% | |
| BTTS no | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -9.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.3% | 5.78 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.630 × 1.86 − 1 = +0.172 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.201 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rochefort | Tubize |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWLDW | DWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Rochefort 63% to win. Standings: Rochefort 4th on 22, Tubize 2nd on 24.
Form
Rochefort have two wins from their last six (D D W L D W). Latest: 1–1 away at Sporting Charleroi II. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Tubize: D W W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Olympic Charleroi. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Rochefort 1, Tubize 1, drawn 0, 5.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Tubize 1–4 Rochefort. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rochefort 1.87 · Tubize 0.94 · total 2.81. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Rochefort to win, probability 63%, odds 1.86 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Rochefort 1–0 Tubize. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Sep 2026Tubize1–4Rochefort
- 10 May 2026Tubize3–2Rochefort
First Amateur Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Meux | 13 | +6 | 25 |
| 2 |  Tubize | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Albert Quévy-Mons | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 4 |  Rochefort | 13 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Union Saint-Gilloise II | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  RWDM | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Olympic Charleroi | 13 | -5 | 19 |
| 8 |  Standard Liège II | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Sporting Charleroi II | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Onhaye | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 11 |  Habay-la-Neuve | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 |  Flénu | 13 | -24 | 2 |
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Mandel United1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rochefort vs Tubize?
The Model pick is Rochefort to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.86 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rochefort v Tubize probabilities?
Rochefort win 63%, draw 15%, Tubize win 22%.
What is the most probable score for Rochefort vs Tubize?
Rochefort 1–0 Tubize is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rochefort vs Tubize?
Rochefort 1.87, Tubize 0.94 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Rochefort vs Tubize?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – First Amateur Division.