- λ home
- 0.86
- λ away
- 2.53
- Σλ total
- 3.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 0–2 10.8%
Flénu vs Albert Quévy-Mons prediction & xG model: Albert Quévy-Mons to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Flénu 10% · draw 18% · Albert Quévy-Mons 73%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Flénu v Albert Quévy-Mons: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Flénu v Albert Quévy-Mons are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.86, λaway = 2.53
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 10.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 73.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Flénu | – | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| 2 Albert Quévy-Mons | – | 74.0% | 71.0% | 72.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Flénu | 9.8% | 10.25 | 8.35 | 12.0% | -18.5% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.71 | 4.95 | 20.2% | -13.3% | |
| 2 · Albert Quévy-Mons pick | 72.7% | 1.37 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 27.3% | 3.67 | 3.06 | 32.7% | -16.6% | |
| X2 | 90.2% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -10.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Flénu | 11.8% | 8.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Albert Quévy-Mons | 88.2% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.5% | 6.05 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -17.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -6.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | 2.77 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -14.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.8% | 2.33 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -5.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -10.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.76 | 56.8% | +2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 41.9% | 2.39 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.6% | 7.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.727 × 1.27 − 1 = -0.076 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Flénu | Albert Quévy-Mons |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLL | WLWWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Albert Quévy-Mons 73%, Flénu 10%. Standings: Flénu 12th on 2, Albert Quévy-Mons 5th on 20.
Form
Sequence for Flénu: L D L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Onhaye. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Albert Quévy-Mons, last six: W L W W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Standard Liège II. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Albert Quévy-Mons 4–0 Flénu. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Flénu 0.86 · Albert Quévy-Mons 2.53 · total 3.39. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Albert Quévy-Mons to win, probability 73%, odds 1.27 v fair 1.37. Most probable score: Flénu 0–2 Albert Quévy-Mons. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 Oct 2026Albert Quévy-Mons4–0Flénu
First Amateur Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Meux | 12 | +9 | 25 |
| 2 |  Rochefort | 12 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Union Saint-Gilloise II | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Tubize | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 5 |  Albert Quévy-Mons | 12 | +8 | 20 |
| 6 |  RWDM | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  Olympic Charleroi | 12 | -8 | 16 |
| 8 |  Standard Liège II | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Sporting Charleroi II | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Onhaye | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 11 |  Habay-la-Neuve | 12 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Flénu | 12 | -22 | 2 |
More First Amateur Division predictions
League page →
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Mandel UnitedFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Flénu vs Albert Quévy-Mons?
The Model pick is Albert Quévy-Mons to win with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.27 by the bookmakers.
What are the Flénu v Albert Quévy-Mons probabilities?
Flénu win 10%, draw 18%, Albert Quévy-Mons win 73%.
What is the most probable score for Flénu vs Albert Quévy-Mons?
Flénu 0–2 Albert Quévy-Mons is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Flénu vs Albert Quévy-Mons?
Flénu 0.86, Albert Quévy-Mons 2.53 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Flénu vs Albert Quévy-Mons?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – First Amateur Division.