- λ home
- 1.50
- λ away
- 1.51
- Σλ total
- 3.01
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Estepona prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Mijas Las Lagunas 39% · draw 21% · Estepona 39%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Mijas Las Lagunas v Estepona: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Mijas Las Lagunas v Estepona are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.81 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.01 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.50, λaway = 1.51
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mijas Las Lagunas | – | 44.0% | 32.3% | 39.1% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 27.6% | 21.5% |
| 2 Estepona | – | 39.0% | 40.1% | 39.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mijas Las Lagunas | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.77 | 36.1% | +8.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.5% | 4.66 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -30.5% | |
| 2 · Estepona | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.23 | 44.8% | -12.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -9.2% | |
| X2 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -19.0% | |
| 12 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mijas Las Lagunas | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Estepona | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -7.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -17.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -4.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -12.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -6.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -11.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -2.9% | |
| BTTS no | 38.5% | 2.59 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.3% | 3.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.615 × 1.58 − 1 = -0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mijas Las Lagunas | Estepona |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDDWW | WLDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Mijas Las Lagunas 39%, draw 21%, Estepona 39%. Standings: Mijas Las Lagunas 7th on 15, Estepona 8th on 15.
Form
Mijas Las Lagunas have two wins from their last six (L D D D W W). Latest: 1–2 at home to Real Jaén. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Estepona: W L D D W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 5–0 at home to Tamaraceite. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mijas Las Lagunas 1.50 · Estepona 1.51 · total 3.01. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Mijas Las Lagunas 1–2 Estepona. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Don Benito | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Badajoz | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Real Betis II | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Xerez | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Atlético Central | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sevilla Atletico | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Linares Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Puente Genil | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sanluqueño | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Tenerife II | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Marbella | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Antoniano | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Las Palmas II | 10 | -13 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mijas Las Lagunas vs Estepona?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mijas Las Lagunas v Estepona probabilities?
Mijas Las Lagunas win 39%, draw 21%, Estepona win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Mijas Las Lagunas vs Estepona?
Mijas Las Lagunas 1–2 Estepona is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mijas Las Lagunas vs Estepona?
Mijas Las Lagunas 1.50, Estepona 1.51 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Mijas Las Lagunas vs Estepona?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 4.