- λ home
- 1.09
- λ away
- 1.48
- Σλ total
- 2.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Las Palmas II vs Ciudad de Lucena prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Las Palmas II 30% · draw 23% · Ciudad de Lucena 48%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Las Palmas II v Ciudad de Lucena: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Las Palmas II v Ciudad de Lucena are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.09, λaway = 1.48
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 28.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 46.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Las Palmas II | – | 26.0% | 34.8% | 29.7% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.6% |
| 2 Ciudad de Lucena | – | 56.0% | 36.4% | 47.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Las Palmas II | 29.7% | 3.37 | 2.57 | 38.9% | -23.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.43 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.1% | |
| 2 · Ciudad de Lucena | 47.7% | 2.09 | 2.46 | 40.7% | +17.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -26.3% | |
| X2 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -3.0% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Las Palmas II | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ciudad de Lucena | 61.7% | 1.62 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -9.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.7% | 3.60 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -11.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -9.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -15.0% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.69 | 59.2% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -20.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.9% | 4.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.9% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.724 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.073 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Las Palmas II | Ciudad de Lucena |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLDL | DWLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 30%. Standings: Las Palmas II 18th on 5, Ciudad de Lucena 3rd on 19.
Form
Las Palmas II have zero wins from their last six (L L L L D L). Latest: 1–2 away at Marbella. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Ciudad de Lucena have three wins from their last six (D W L D W W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Badajoz. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Las Palmas II 1.09 · Ciudad de Lucena 1.48 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.38. Most probable score: Las Palmas II 0–1 Ciudad de Lucena. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Don Benito | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Badajoz | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Real Betis II | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Xerez | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Atlético Central | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sevilla Atletico | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Linares Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Puente Genil | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sanluqueño | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Tenerife II | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Marbella | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Antoniano | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Las Palmas II | 10 | -13 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Las Palmas II vs Ciudad de Lucena?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Las Palmas II v Ciudad de Lucena probabilities?
Las Palmas II win 30%, draw 23%, Ciudad de Lucena win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Las Palmas II vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Las Palmas II 0–1 Ciudad de Lucena is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Las Palmas II vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Las Palmas II 1.09, Ciudad de Lucena 1.48 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Las Palmas II vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 4.