- λ home
- 1.40
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.29
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.1%
Puente Genil vs Atlético Central prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Puente Genil 46% · draw 27% · Atlético Central 27%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Puente Genil v Atlético Central: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Puente Genil v Atlético Central are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puente Genil (home) | 1.56 | 0.82 | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| Atlético Central (away) | 1.07 | 0.91 | 0.81 | 0.79 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 0.82 × 1.08 ≈ 1.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.36 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.29 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.40, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 48.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Puente Genil | 49.8% | 44.0% | 44.5% | 46.2% |
| X Draw | 29.3% | 18.0% | 29.6% | 26.8% |
| 2 Atlético Central | 20.9% | 38.0% | 25.9% | 27.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Puente Genil | 46.2% | 2.16 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -7.1% | |
| X · Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.02 | 33.1% | -19.1% | |
| 2 · Atlético Central | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -6.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -11.6% | |
| X2 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -12.9% | |
| 12 | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Puente Genil | 63.1% | 1.58 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atlético Central | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -10.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -10.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.6% | 4.62 | 3.88 | 25.8% | -16.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.92 | 52.1% | +1.9% | |
| BTTS no | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -17.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.6% | 2.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.6% | 5.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.531 × 1.92 − 1 = +0.019 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.020 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Puente Genil | Atlético Central |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDWWL | WWWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Puente Genil ahead at 46%, against 27% for Atlético Central and 27% for the draw. Standings: Puente Genil 12th on 12, Atlético Central 9th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Puente Genil: L D D W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–3 away at Don Benito. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Atlético Central: W W W L L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Antoniano. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Puente Genil 1.40 · Atlético Central 0.89 · total 2.29. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.92 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Puente Genil 2–1 Atlético Central. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Don Benito | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Betis II | 10 | +6 | 18 |
| 5 |  Badajoz | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Xerez | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Atlético Central | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sevilla Atletico | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Linares Deportivo | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Puente Genil | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Tenerife II | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Marbella | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Sanluqueño | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Antoniano | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Las Palmas II | 10 | -13 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Puente Genil vs Atlético Central?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.92 by the bookmakers.
What are the Puente Genil v Atlético Central probabilities?
Puente Genil win 46%, draw 27%, Atlético Central win 27%.
What is the most probable score for Puente Genil vs Atlético Central?
Puente Genil 2–1 Atlético Central is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Puente Genil vs Atlético Central?
Puente Genil 1.40, Atlético Central 0.89 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Puente Genil vs Atlético Central?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 4.