- λ home
- 1.46
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.0%
UD Logroñés II vs Peña Sport prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: UD Logroñés II 43% · draw 21% · Peña Sport 36%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
UD Logroñés II v Peña Sport: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for UD Logroñés II v Peña Sport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.65 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.46, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 UD Logroñés II | – | 45.0% | 40.3% | 43.0% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 27.1% | 21.2% |
| 2 Peña Sport | – | 38.0% | 32.6% | 35.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · UD Logroñés II | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -4.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.71 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -29.9% | |
| 2 · Peña Sport | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -2.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.3% | 1.56 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -14.5% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -14.5% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB UD Logroñés II | 54.6% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Peña Sport | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -9.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -10.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -6.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.8% | 3.15 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -14.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -1.6% | |
| BTTS no | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.19 | 45.7% | -18.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.4% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.0% | 3.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.682 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.072 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | UD Logroñés II | Peña Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLWL | LWLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: UD Logroñés II 43%, draw 21%, Peña Sport 36%. Standings: UD Logroñés II 14th on 9, Peña Sport 11th on 12.
Form
UD Logroñés II have one win from their last six (L L D L W L). Latest: 0–1 away at Reddis. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Peña Sport, last six: L W L D D L – one win in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to Terrassa. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG UD Logroñés II 1.46 · Peña Sport 1.30 · total 2.76. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: UD Logroñés II 1–0 Peña Sport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona B | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 |  Terrassa | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Espanyol II | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 4 |  Girona II | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Olot | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ebro | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Osasuna II | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Manresa | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Reddis | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Utebo | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Peña Sport | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Barbastro | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Tudelano | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  UD Logroñés II | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  SD Logroñés | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Náxara | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Arnedo | 10 | -13 | 6 |
| 18 |  Calamocha | 10 | -14 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for UD Logroñés II vs Peña Sport?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the UD Logroñés II v Peña Sport probabilities?
UD Logroñés II win 43%, draw 21%, Peña Sport win 36%.
What is the most probable score for UD Logroñés II vs Peña Sport?
UD Logroñés II 1–0 Peña Sport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for UD Logroñés II vs Peña Sport?
UD Logroñés II 1.46, Peña Sport 1.30 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is UD Logroñés II vs Peña Sport?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 2.