- λ home
- 1.08
- λ away
- 1.38
- Σλ total
- 2.46
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Náxara vs Manresa prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Náxara 32% · draw 22% · Manresa 46%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Náxara v Manresa: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Náxara v Manresa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.37 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.46 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.08, λaway = 1.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Náxara | – | 35.0% | 27.1% | 31.7% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.1% | 22.3% |
| 2 Manresa | – | 47.0% | 44.7% | 46.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Náxara | 31.7% | 3.16 | 3.30 | 30.3% | +4.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.18 | 31.4% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Manresa | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -7.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.9% | 1.85 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -12.6% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -16.0% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Náxara | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Manresa | 59.2% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -9.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -9.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -6.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.3% | 3.96 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -15.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -7.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.2% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.747 × 1.24 − 1 = -0.074 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Náxara | Manresa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDWD | LLDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 83% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 46% against 32%. Standings: Náxara 16th on 6, Manresa 8th on 14.
Form
Náxara, last six: L D L D W D – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Arnedo. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Manresa, last six: L L D W D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–3 at home to Barcelona B. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Náxara 1.08 · Manresa 1.38 · total 2.46. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.24 v fair 1.34. Most probable score: Náxara 0–1 Manresa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona B | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 |  Terrassa | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Espanyol II | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 4 |  Girona II | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Olot | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ebro | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Osasuna II | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Manresa | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Reddis | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Utebo | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Peña Sport | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Barbastro | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Tudelano | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  UD Logroñés II | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  SD Logroñés | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Náxara | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Arnedo | 10 | -13 | 6 |
| 18 |  Calamocha | 10 | -14 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Náxara vs Manresa?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.24 by the bookmakers.
What are the Náxara v Manresa probabilities?
Náxara win 32%, draw 22%, Manresa win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Náxara vs Manresa?
Náxara 0–1 Manresa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Náxara vs Manresa?
Náxara 1.08, Manresa 1.38 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Náxara vs Manresa?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 2.