- λ home
- 1.52
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.2%
Gernika vs Real Oviedo II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Gernika 47% · draw 26% · Real Oviedo II 27%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Gernika v Real Oviedo II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Gernika v Real Oviedo II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika (home) | 1.51 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.56 |
| Real Oviedo II (away) | 1.32 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.94 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.97 × 1.06 ≈ 1.56
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.50 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.65 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.44 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.52, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 49.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gernika | 50.7% | 46.0% | 44.5% | 47.0% |
| X Draw | 26.8% | 18.0% | 29.4% | 25.9% |
| 2 Real Oviedo II | 22.5% | 36.0% | 26.1% | 27.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gernika | 47.0% | 2.13 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -5.5% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.87 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -21.4% | |
| 2 · Real Oviedo II | 27.1% | 3.68 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -7.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -11.1% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -14.1% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -5.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gernika | 63.4% | 1.58 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Oviedo II | 36.6% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -7.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.2% | 3.32 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -14.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -6.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -9.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -10.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -9.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +7.2% | |
| BTTS no | 42.1% | 2.38 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -23.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.7% | 2.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.8% | 4.80 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.579 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.072 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.084 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gernika | Real Oviedo II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDLDL | DWDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-4-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Gernika ahead at 47%, against 27% for Real Oviedo II and 26% for the draw. Standings: Gernika 12th on 12, Real Oviedo II 8th on 15.
Form
Gernika, last six: D D D L D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Gimnástica Torrelavega. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Real Oviedo II, last six: D W D L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Coruxo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gernika 1.52 · Real Oviedo II 1.00 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Gernika 2–1 Real Oviedo II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sestao River | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Eibar II | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés II | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 |  Portugalete | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bergantiños | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 |  Compostela | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Amorebieta | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 |  Real Oviedo II | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Basconia | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander II | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ourense CF | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 |  Gernika | 10 | +6 | 12 |
| 13 |  Llanera | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Coruxo | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Arosa | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Atlético Astorga | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 |  Marino de Luanco | 11 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 |  Gimnástica Torrelavega | 11 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gernika vs Real Oviedo II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gernika v Real Oviedo II probabilities?
Gernika win 47%, draw 26%, Real Oviedo II win 27%.
What is the most probable score for Gernika vs Real Oviedo II?
Gernika 2–1 Real Oviedo II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gernika vs Real Oviedo II?
Gernika 1.52, Real Oviedo II 1.00 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Gernika vs Real Oviedo II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 1.