- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.20
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.3%
Compostela vs Ourense CF prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Compostela 48% · draw 27% · Ourense CF 25%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Compostela v Ourense CF: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Compostela v Ourense CF are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compostela (home) | 1.51 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| Ourense CF (away) | 1.32 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.97 × 0.92 ≈ 1.35
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.15 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.46 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.20 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 50.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Compostela | 51.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | 48.3% |
| X Draw | 29.8% | 18.0% | 28.6% | 26.6% |
| 2 Ourense CF | 19.3% | 32.0% | 26.3% | 25.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Compostela | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -4.4% | |
| X · Draw | 26.6% | 3.77 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -17.1% | |
| 2 · Ourense CF | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -14.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.7% | |
| X2 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -15.2% | |
| 12 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Compostela | 65.7% | 1.52 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ourense CF | 34.3% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -12.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -3.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -15.2% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.4% | 4.68 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -21.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -10.7% | |
| BTTS no | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -6.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.2% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.1% | 5.52 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.589 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Compostela | Ourense CF |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWL | LDWLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Compostela ahead at 48%, against 25% for Ourense CF and 27% for the draw. Standings: Compostela 6th on 17, Ourense CF 11th on 14.
Form
Compostela, last six: W D W W W L – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Arosa. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Ourense CF: L D W L L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–3 at home to Portugalete. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Compostela 1.39 · Ourense CF 0.82 · total 2.20. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 59%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Compostela 1–0 Ourense CF. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sestao River | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Eibar II | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés II | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 |  Portugalete | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bergantiños | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 |  Compostela | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Amorebieta | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 |  Real Oviedo II | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Basconia | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander II | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ourense CF | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 |  Gernika | 10 | +6 | 12 |
| 13 |  Llanera | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Coruxo | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Arosa | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Atlético Astorga | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 |  Marino de Luanco | 11 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 |  Gimnástica Torrelavega | 11 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Compostela vs Ourense CF?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Compostela v Ourense CF probabilities?
Compostela win 48%, draw 27%, Ourense CF win 25%.
What is the most probable score for Compostela vs Ourense CF?
Compostela 1–0 Ourense CF is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Compostela vs Ourense CF?
Compostela 1.39, Ourense CF 0.82 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Compostela vs Ourense CF?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 1.