- λ home
- 1.40
- λ away
- 1.63
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Basconia vs Deportivo Alavés II prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Basconia 34% · draw 22% · Deportivo Alavés II 44%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Basconia v Deportivo Alavés II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Basconia v Deportivo Alavés II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.35 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.76 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.40, λaway = 1.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Basconia | – | 33.0% | 34.9% | 33.8% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.5% | 22.4% |
| 2 Deportivo Alavés II | – | 49.0% | 36.6% | 43.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Basconia | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -13.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Deportivo Alavés II | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.44 | 41.0% | +6.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -20.2% | |
| X2 | 66.2% | 1.51 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -8.6% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Basconia | 43.6% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Deportivo Alavés II | 56.4% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -20.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -2.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -14.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -4.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -11.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.4% | 2.60 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -17.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.2% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.4% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.773 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Basconia | Deportivo Alavés II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDLDD | LWDWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Deportivo Alavés II narrowly ahead at 44%; Basconia 34%. Standings: Basconia 9th on 14, Deportivo Alavés II 3rd on 20.
Form
Basconia have one win from their last six (W D D L D D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Amorebieta. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Deportivo Alavés II: L W D W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Sestao River. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Deportivo Alavés II 0–0 Basconia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Basconia 1.40 · Deportivo Alavés II 1.63 · total 3.03. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 77%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.29. Most probable score: Basconia 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Mar 2026Deportivo Alavés II0–0Basconia
Segunda División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sestao River | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Eibar II | 10 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés II | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 |  Bergantiños | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Compostela | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Portugalete | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Amorebieta | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Real Oviedo II | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Basconia | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Ourense CF | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gernika | 10 | +6 | 12 |
| 12 |  Racing Santander II | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Llanera | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Coruxo | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Arosa | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Marino de Luanco | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 |  Atlético Astorga | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Gimnástica Torrelavega | 10 | -12 | 6 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Basconia vs Deportivo Alavés II?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 77, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Basconia v Deportivo Alavés II probabilities?
Basconia win 34%, draw 22%, Deportivo Alavés II win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Basconia vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Basconia 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Basconia vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Basconia 1.40, Deportivo Alavés II 1.63 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Basconia vs Deportivo Alavés II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:15 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 1.