- λ home
- 1.30
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 2.29
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.1%
Sportist Svoge vs Spartak Pleven prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sportist Svoge v Spartak Pleven: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
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How the numbers for Sportist Svoge v Spartak Pleven are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportist Svoge (home) | 1.67 | 0.73 | 1.08 | 1.32 |
| Spartak Pleven (away) | 1.18 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 0.73 × 1.08 ≈ 1.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.32 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.34 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.21 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.29 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.30, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sportist Svoge | 42.9% | 48.0% | 43.2% | 44.2% |
| X Draw | 29.2% | 18.0% | 29.8% | 26.9% |
| 2 Spartak Pleven | 27.9% | 34.0% | 27.0% | 28.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sportist Svoge | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -8.9% | |
| X · Draw | 26.9% | 3.72 | 2.99 | 33.4% | -19.7% | |
| 2 · Spartak Pleven | 28.9% | 3.46 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -4.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -13.3% | |
| X2 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -11.8% | |
| 12 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sportist Svoge | 60.4% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Spartak Pleven | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -14.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.1% | 2.55 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -5.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -9.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.0% | 5.00 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -10.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.04 | 49.0% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -19.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.5% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.4% | 4.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.508 × 2.04 − 1 = +0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.035 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sportist Svoge | Spartak Pleven |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDLDL | DWWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sportist Svoge ahead at 44%, against 29% for Spartak Pleven and 27% for the draw. Standings: Sportist Svoge 16th on 12, Spartak Pleven 10th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Sportist Svoge: L D D L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–6 away at Fratria. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Spartak Pleven have three wins from their last six (D W W L D W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Dobrudzha. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sportist Svoge 1.30 · Spartak Pleven 0.99 · total 2.29. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 39%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.04 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: Sportist Svoge 2–1 Spartak Pleven. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 16 | +16 | 32 |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 3 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sportist Svoge vs Spartak Pleven?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.04 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sportist Svoge v Spartak Pleven probabilities?
Sportist Svoge win 44%, draw 27%, Spartak Pleven win 29%.
What is the most probable score for Sportist Svoge vs Spartak Pleven?
Sportist Svoge 2–1 Spartak Pleven is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sportist Svoge vs Spartak Pleven?
Sportist Svoge 1.30, Spartak Pleven 0.99 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Sportist Svoge vs Spartak Pleven?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov – Second League.