- λ home
- 1.17
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs CSKA Sofia II prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 36% · draw 23% · CSKA Sofia II 41%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v CSKA Sofia II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v CSKA Sofia II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.38 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.48 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.17, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | – | 38.0% | 34.0% | 36.3% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 CSKA Sofia II | – | 44.0% | 37.3% | 41.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -4.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.2% | |
| 2 · CSKA Sofia II | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.39 | 41.8% | -1.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -15.9% | |
| X2 | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.4% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB CSKA Sofia II | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -8.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -11.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -9.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.3% | 4.11 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -14.8% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 42.9% | 2.33 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -20.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.1% | 3.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.757 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.077 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDDW | WWDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 23 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 7th on 23, CSKA Sofia II 1st on 31.
Form
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have three wins from their last six (L W W D D W). Latest: 1–3 away at Vihren. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
CSKA Sofia II have four wins from their last six (W W D D W W). Latest: 3–1 at home to Rilski Sportist. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–3 CSKA Sofia II. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.17 · CSKA Sofia II 1.27 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–1 CSKA Sofia II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 May 2026Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa0–3CSKA Sofia II
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 2 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs CSKA Sofia II?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v CSKA Sofia II probabilities?
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win 36%, draw 23%, CSKA Sofia II win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs CSKA Sofia II?
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–1 CSKA Sofia II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs CSKA Sofia II?
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.17, CSKA Sofia II 1.27 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs CSKA Sofia II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Lokomotiv stadium – Second League.