- λ home
- 1.25
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.0%
Nesebar vs Fratria prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Nesebar 29% · draw 21% · Fratria 50%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Nesebar v Fratria: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Nesebar v Fratria are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar (home) | 1.67 | 0.99 | 0.85 | 1.39 |
| Fratria (away) | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.02 | 1.44 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 0.99 × 0.85 ≈ 1.39
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.83 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.70 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.25, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nesebar | 35.8% | 23.0% | 25.8% | 28.7% |
| X Draw | 26.3% | 7.0% | 25.2% | 21.4% |
| 2 Fratria | 37.8% | 70.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Nesebar | 28.7% | 3.49 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -1.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.68 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -24.4% | |
| 2 · Fratria | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -9.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -12.5% | |
| X2 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -13.7% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Nesebar | 36.4% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fratria | 63.6% | 1.57 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -12.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -9.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -9.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -17.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.8% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Nesebar | Fratria |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLDD | WLLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 50% against 29%. Standings: Nesebar 14th on 18, Fratria 4th on 25.
Form
Nesebar, last six: L L L L D D – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Ludogorets II. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Fratria, last six: W L L L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 6–2 at home to Sportist Svoge. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Nesebar 1.25 · Fratria 1.50 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Nesebar 1–2 Fratria. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 16 | +16 | 32 |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 3 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Nesebar vs Fratria?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Nesebar v Fratria probabilities?
Nesebar win 29%, draw 21%, Fratria win 50%.
What is the most probable score for Nesebar vs Fratria?
Nesebar 1–2 Fratria is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Nesebar vs Fratria?
Nesebar 1.25, Fratria 1.50 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Nesebar vs Fratria?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Gradski stadion – Second League.